气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Multimodel assessments of human and climate impacts on mean annual streamflow in China

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DOI	10.5194/hess-23-1245-2019
	Multimodel assessments of human and climate impacts on mean annual streamflow in China
	Liu X.; Liu W.; Yang H.; Tang Q.; Flörke M.; Masaki Y.; Müller Schmied H.; Ostberg S.; Pokhrel Y.; Satoh Y.; Wada Y.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	1027-5606
起始页码	1245
结束页码	1261
卷号	23 期号:3
英文摘要	Human activities, as well as climate variability, have had increasing impacts on natural hydrological systems, particularly streamflow. However, quantitative assessments of these impacts are lacking on large scales. In this study, we use the simulations from six global hydrological models driven by three meteorological forcings to investigate direct human impact (DHI) and climate impact on streamflow in China. Results show that, in the sub-periods of 1971-1990 and 1991-2010, one-fifth to one-third of mean annual streamflow (MAF) was reduced due to DHI in northern basins, and much smaller ( 4 %) MAF was reduced in southern basins. From 1971-1990 to 1991-2010, total MAF changes range from-13%to 10%across basins wherein the relative contributions of DHI change and climate variability show distinct spatial patterns. DHI change caused decreases in MAF in 70% of river segments, but climate variability dominated the total MAF changes in 88% of river segments of China. In most northern basins, climate variability results in changes of-9% to 18% in MAF, while DHI change results in decreases of 2% to 8% in MAF. In contrast with the climate variability that may increase or decrease streamflow, DHI change almost always contributes to decreases in MAF over time, with water withdrawals supposedly being the major impact on streamflow. This quantitative assessment can be a reference for attribution of streamflow changes at large scales, despite remaining uncertainty. We highlight the significant DHI in northern basins and the necessity to modulate DHI through improved water management towards a better adaptation to future climate change. © 2019 Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate models; Stream flow; Water management; Climate variability; Human activities; Hydrological models; Hydrological system; Quantitative assessments; Relative contribution; Streamflow changes; Water withdrawal; Climate change; annual variation; anthropogenic effect; climate effect; climate forcing; hydrological cycle; hydrological modeling; quantitative analysis; streamflow; China
来源期刊	Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/159740
作者单位	Liu, X., Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences, Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Datun Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing, 100101, China, Eawag, Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, Ueberlandstrasse 133, Duebendorf, 8600, Switzerland; Liu, W., Eawag, Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, Ueberlandstrasse 133, Duebendorf, 8600, Switzerland, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL), CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, 91191, France; Yang, H., Eawag, Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, Ueberlandstrasse 133, Duebendorf, 8600, Switzerland, Department of Environmental Sciences, MGU, University of Basel, Petersplatz 1, Basel, 4003, Switzerland; Tang, Q., Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences, Natural Resources Research, Chinese Acade...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Liu X.,Liu W.,Yang H.,et al. Multimodel assessments of human and climate impacts on mean annual streamflow in China[J],2019,23(3).
APA	Liu X..,Liu W..,Yang H..,Tang Q..,Flörke M..,...&Wada Y..(2019).Multimodel assessments of human and climate impacts on mean annual streamflow in China.Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,23(3).
MLA	Liu X.,et al."Multimodel assessments of human and climate impacts on mean annual streamflow in China".Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 23.3(2019).