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DOI	10.5194/hess-23-2147-2019
	A likelihood framework for deterministic hydrological models and the importance of non-stationary autocorrelation
	Ammann L.; Fenicia F.; Reichert P.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	1027-5606
起始页码	2147
结束页码	2172
卷号	23 期号:4
英文摘要	The widespread application of deterministic hydrological models in research and practice calls for suitable methods to describe their uncertainty. The errors of those models are often heteroscedastic, non-Gaussian and correlated due to the memory effect of errors in state variables. Still, residual error models are usually highly simplified, often neglecting some of the mentioned characteristics. This is partly because general approaches to account for all of those characteristics are lacking, and partly because the benefits of more complex error models in terms of achieving better predictions are unclear. For example, the joint inference of autocorrelation of errors and hydrological model parameters has been shown to lead to poor predictions. This study presents a framework for likelihood functions for deterministic hydrological models that considers correlated errors and allows for an arbitrary probability distribution of observed streamflow. The choice of this distribution reflects prior knowledge about non-normality of the errors. The framework was used to evaluate increasingly complex error models with data of varying temporal resolution (daily to hourly) in two catchments. We found that (1) the joint inference of hydrological and error model parameters leads to poor predictions when conventional error models with stationary correlation are used, which confirms previous studies; (2) the quality of these predictions worsens with higher temporal resolution of the data; (3) accounting for a non-stationary autocorrelation of the errors, i.e. allowing it to vary between wet and dry periods, largely alleviates the observed problems; and (4) accounting for autocorrelation leads to more realistic model output, as shown by signatures such as the flashiness index. Overall, this study contributes to a better description of residual errors of deterministic hydrological models. © Author(s) 2019.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Autocorrelation; Catchments; Forecasting; Gaussian noise (electronic); Probability distributions; Arbitrary probability distribution; Correlated errors; Hydrological modeling; Hydrological models; Likelihood functions; Residual error models; Stationary correlation; Temporal resolution; Errors; autocorrelation; catchment; hydrological modeling; maximum likelihood analysis; prediction; streamflow; uncertainty analysis
来源期刊	Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/159691
作者单位	Ammann, L., Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology (Eawag), Dubendorf, Switzerland, Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland; Fenicia, F., Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology (Eawag), Dubendorf, Switzerland; Reichert, P., Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology (Eawag), Dubendorf, Switzerland, Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ammann L.,Fenicia F.,Reichert P.. A likelihood framework for deterministic hydrological models and the importance of non-stationary autocorrelation[J],2019,23(4).
APA	Ammann L.,Fenicia F.,&Reichert P..(2019).A likelihood framework for deterministic hydrological models and the importance of non-stationary autocorrelation.Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,23(4).
MLA	Ammann L.,et al."A likelihood framework for deterministic hydrological models and the importance of non-stationary autocorrelation".Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 23.4(2019).