气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): WHAT-IF: An open-source decision support tool for water infrastructure investment planning within the water-energy-food-climate nexus

CCPortal

DOI	10.5194/hess-23-4129-2019
	WHAT-IF: An open-source decision support tool for water infrastructure investment planning within the water-energy-food-climate nexus
	Payet-Burin R.; Kromann M.; Pereira-Cardenal S.; Marc Strzepek K.; Bauer-Gottwein P.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	1027-5606
起始页码	4129
结束页码	4152
卷号	23 期号:10
英文摘要	Water infrastructure investment planning must consider the interdependencies within the water-energy-food nexus. Moreover, uncertain future climate, evolving socio-economic context, and stakeholders with conflicting interests, lead to a highly complex decision problem. Therefore, there is a need for decision support tools to objectively determine the value of investments, considering the impacts on different groups of actors, and the risks linked to uncertainties. We present a new open-source hydro-economic optimization model, incorporating in a holistic framework, representations of the water, agriculture, and power systems. The model represents the joint development of nexus-related infrastructure and policies and evaluates their economic impact, as well as the risks linked to uncertainties in future climate and socio-economic development. We apply the methodology in the Zambezi River basin, a major African basin shared by eight countries, in which multiple investment opportunities exist, including new hydropower plants, new or resized reservoirs, development of irrigation agriculture, and investments into the power grid. We show that it is crucial to consider the links between the different systems when evaluating the impacts of climate change and socio-economic development, which will ultimately influence investment decisions. We find that climate change could induce economic losses of up to USD2.3 billion per year in the current system. We show that the value of the hydropower development plan is sensitive to future fuel prices, carbon pricing policies, the capital cost of solar technologies, and climate change. Similarly, we show that the value of the irrigation development plan is sensitive to the evolution of crop yields, world market crop prices, and climate change. Finally, we evaluate the opportunity costs of restoring the natural floods in the Zambezi Delta; we find limited economic trade-offs under the current climate, but major trade-offs with irrigation and hydropower generation under the driest climate change scenario. © Author(s) 2019.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate models; Costs; Crops; Decision making; Decision support systems; Economic and social effects; Electric power transmission networks; Hydroelectric power; International trade; Investments; Irrigation; Lead compounds; Losses; Open systems; Reservoirs (water); Water management; Climate change scenarios; Decision support tools; Hydro-economic optimizations; Hydro-power development; Investment opportunities; Irrigation agriculture; Socio-economic development; Water infrastructure investments; Climate change; climate change; decision support system; development project; economic impact; economic planning; hydroelectric power; infrastructure planning; investment; optimization; pollution tax; pricing policy; socioeconomic impact; stakeholder; trade-off; uncertainty analysis; Mozambique; Zambezi Basin; Zambezi Delta
来源期刊	Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/159592
作者单位	Payet-Burin, R., Department of Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Denmark, Kgs. Lyngby, 2800, Denmark, COWI A/S, Kgs. Lyngby, 2800, Denmark; Kromann, M., COWI A/S, Kgs. Lyngby, 2800, Denmark; Pereira-Cardenal, S., COWI A/S, Kgs. Lyngby, 2800, Denmark; Marc Strzepek, K., MIT, Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 77 Massachusetts Ave, Cambridge, MA 02139, United States; Bauer-Gottwein, P., Department of Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Denmark, Kgs. Lyngby, 2800, Denmark
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Payet-Burin R.,Kromann M.,Pereira-Cardenal S.,et al. WHAT-IF: An open-source decision support tool for water infrastructure investment planning within the water-energy-food-climate nexus[J],2019,23(10).
APA	Payet-Burin R.,Kromann M.,Pereira-Cardenal S.,Marc Strzepek K.,&Bauer-Gottwein P..(2019).WHAT-IF: An open-source decision support tool for water infrastructure investment planning within the water-energy-food-climate nexus.Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,23(10).
MLA	Payet-Burin R.,et al."WHAT-IF: An open-source decision support tool for water infrastructure investment planning within the water-energy-food-climate nexus".Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 23.10(2019).