气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Assessing water security in the São Paulo metropolitan region under projected climate change

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DOI	10.5194/hess-23-4955-2019
	Assessing water security in the São Paulo metropolitan region under projected climate change
	Gesualdo G.C.; Oliveira P.T.; Rodrigues D.B.B.; Gupta H.V.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	1027-5606
起始页码	4955
结束页码	4968
卷号	23 期号:12
英文摘要	Climate change affects the global water cycle and has the potential to alter water availability for food-energy-water production, and for ecosystems services, on regional and local scales. An understanding of these effects is crucial for assessing future water availability, and for the development of sustainable management plans. Here, we investigate the influence of anticipated climate change on water security in the Jaguari Basin, which is the main source of freshwater for 9 million people in the São Paulo metropolitan region (SPMR). First, we calibrate and evaluate a hydrological model using daily observed data, obtaining satisfactory coefficient of determination and Kling-Gupta efficiency values for both periods. To represent possible climate change scenarios up to 2095, we consider two International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and use an ensemble of future projections generated by 17 general circulation models (GCMs). These data were used to drive the hydrological model to generate projected scenarios of streamflow. We then used indicators of water scarcity and vulnerability to carry out a quantitative analysis of provision probability. Our results indicate that streamflow can be expected to exhibit increased interannual variability, significant increases in flow rate between January and March, and a 2-month extension of the hydrological dry season (currently June to September) until November. The latter includes a more than a 35 % reduction in streamflow during September through November (with a > 50 % reduction in October). Our findings indicate an increased risk of floods and droughts accompanied by an expansion of the basin critical period, and our analysis of the water security indices identifies October and November as the most vulnerable months. Overall, our analysis exposes the fragility of water security in the São Paulo metropolitan region, and provides valuable technical and scientific information that can be used to guide regional plans and strategies to cope with potential future water scarcity. © 2019 Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate models; Digital storage; Drought; Floods; Regional planning; Risk assessment; Stream flow; Climate change scenarios; Coefficient of determination; General circulation model; Hydrological modeling; Interannual variability; Metropolitan regions; Scientific information; Sustainable management; Climate change; annual variation; assessment method; climate change; coping strategy; dry season; general circulation model; hydrological modeling; metropolitan area; quantitative analysis; streamflow; water availability; water management; Brazil; Jaguari Basin; Sao Paulo [Brazil]
来源期刊	Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/159551
作者单位	Gesualdo, G.C., Federal University of Mato Grosso Do sul, CxP 549, Campo Grande MS, 79070-900, Brazil; Oliveira, P.T., Federal University of Mato Grosso Do sul, CxP 549, Campo Grande MS, 79070-900, Brazil; Rodrigues, D.B.B., Federal University of Mato Grosso Do sul, CxP 549, Campo Grande MS, 79070-900, Brazil; Gupta, H.V., Department of Hydrology and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Gesualdo G.C.,Oliveira P.T.,Rodrigues D.B.B.,et al. Assessing water security in the São Paulo metropolitan region under projected climate change[J],2019,23(12).
APA	Gesualdo G.C.,Oliveira P.T.,Rodrigues D.B.B.,&Gupta H.V..(2019).Assessing water security in the São Paulo metropolitan region under projected climate change.Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,23(12).
MLA	Gesualdo G.C.,et al."Assessing water security in the São Paulo metropolitan region under projected climate change".Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 23.12(2019).