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DOI	10.5194/hess-24-771-2020
	The impact of initial conditions on convection-permitting simulations of a flood event over complex mountainous terrain
	Li L.; Pontoppidan M.; Sobolowski S.; Senatore A.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	1027-5606
起始页码	771
结束页码	791
卷号	24 期号:2
英文摘要	Western Norway suffered major flooding after 4 d of intense rainfall during the last week of October 2014. While events like this are expected to become more frequent and severe under a warming climate, convection-permitting scale models are showing their skill with respect to capturing their dynamics. Nevertheless, several sources of uncertainty need to be taken into account, including the impact of initial conditions on the precipitation pattern and discharge, especially over complex, mountainous terrain. In this paper, the Weather Research and Forecasting Model Hydrological modelling system (WRF-Hydro) is applied at a convection-permitting scale, and its performance is assessed in western Norway for the aforementioned flood event. The model is calibrated and evaluated using observations and benchmarks obtained from the Hydrologiska Byräns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) model. The calibrated WRF-Hydro model performs better than the simpler conceptual HBV model, especially in areas with complex terrain and poor observational coverage. The sensitivity of the precipitation pattern and discharge to poorly constrained elements such as spin-up time and snow conditions is then examined. The results show the following: (1) the convection-permitting WRF-Hydro simulation generally captures the precipitation pattern/amount, the peak flow volume and the timing of the flood event; (2) precipitation is not overly sensitive to spin-up time, whereas discharge is slightly more sensitive due to the influence of soil moisture, especially during the pre-peak phase; and (3) the idealized snow depth experiments show that a maximum of 0.5 m of snow is converted to runoff irrespective of the initial snow depth and that this snowmelt contributes to discharge mostly during the rainy and the peak flow periods. Although further targeted experiments are needed, this study suggests that snow cover intensifies the extreme discharge instead of acting as a sponge, which implies that future rain-on-snow events may contribute to a higher flood risk. © 2020 Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate models; Landforms; Rain; Runoff; Snow; Snow melting systems; Soil moisture; Weather forecasting; Extreme discharges; Hydro simulations; Hydrological modelling; Initial conditions; Mountainous terrain; Precipitation patterns; Sources of uncertainty; Weather research and forecasting models; Floods; atmospheric convection; flood; flooding; hydrological modeling; mountain stream; peak flow; precipitation (climatology); rainfall; river discharge; runoff; snow cover; snowmelt; soil moisture; Norway; Hepatitis B virus
来源期刊	Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/159497
作者单位	Li, L., NORCE Norwegian Research Centre, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Jahnebakken 5, Bergen, 5007, Norway; Pontoppidan, M., NORCE Norwegian Research Centre, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Jahnebakken 5, Bergen, 5007, Norway; Sobolowski, S., NORCE Norwegian Research Centre, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Jahnebakken 5, Bergen, 5007, Norway; Senatore, A., Department of Environmental Engineering, University of Calabria, Arcavacata di Rende (CS), Italy
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Li L.,Pontoppidan M.,Sobolowski S.,et al. The impact of initial conditions on convection-permitting simulations of a flood event over complex mountainous terrain[J],2020,24(2).
APA	Li L.,Pontoppidan M.,Sobolowski S.,&Senatore A..(2020).The impact of initial conditions on convection-permitting simulations of a flood event over complex mountainous terrain.Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,24(2).
MLA	Li L.,et al."The impact of initial conditions on convection-permitting simulations of a flood event over complex mountainous terrain".Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 24.2(2020).