气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Radar-based characterisation of heavy precipitation in the eastern Mediterranean and its representation in a convection-permitting model

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DOI	10.5194/hess-24-1227-2020
	Radar-based characterisation of heavy precipitation in the eastern Mediterranean and its representation in a convection-permitting model
	Armon M.; Marra F.; Enzel Y.; Rostkier-Edelstein D.; Morin E.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	1027-5606
起始页码	1227
结束页码	1249
卷号	24 期号:3
英文摘要	Heavy precipitation events (HPEs) can lead to natural hazards (e.g. floods and debris flows) and contribute to water resources. Spatiotemporal rainfall patterns govern the hydrological, geomorphological, and societal effects of HPEs. Thus, a correct characterisation and prediction of rainfall patterns is crucial for coping with these events. Information from rain gauges is generally limited due to the sparseness of the networks, especially in the presence of sharp climatic gradients. Forecasting HPEs depends on the ability of weather models to generate credible rainfall patterns. This paper characterises rainfall patterns during HPEs based on high-resolution weather radar data and evaluates the performance of a high-resolution, convection-permitting Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in simulating these patterns. We identified 41 HPEs in the eastern Mediterranean from a 24-year radar record using local thresholds based on quantiles for different durations, classified these events into two synoptic systems, and ran model simulations for them. For most durations, HPEs near the coastline were characterised by the highest rain intensities; however, for short durations, the highest rain intensities were found for the inland desert. During the rainy season, the rain field's centre of mass progresses from the sea inland. Rainfall during HPEs is highly localised in both space (less than a 10 km decorrelation distance) and time (less than 5 min). WRF model simulations were accurate in generating the structure and location of the rain fields in 39 out of 41 HPEs. However, they showed a positive bias relative to the radar estimates and exhibited errors in the spatial location of the heaviest precipitation. Our results indicate that convection-permitting model outputs can provide reliable climatological analyses of heavy precipitation patterns; conversely, flood forecasting requires the use of ensemble simulations to overcome the spatial location errors. © 2020 BMJ Publishing Group. All rights reserved.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Flood control; Floods; Location; Meteorological radar; Rain; Rain gages; Water resources; Climatic gradients; Climatological analysis; Decorrelation distances; Eastern Mediterranean; Ensemble simulation; Heavy precipitation; Weather radar data; Weather research and forecasting models; Weather forecasting; flood; flood forecasting; precipitation (climatology); precipitation intensity; raingauge; spatiotemporal analysis; Mediterranean Region
来源期刊	Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/159471
作者单位	Armon, M., Fredy and Nadine Herrmann Institute of Earth Sciences, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Edmond J. Safra Campus, Jerusalem, 9190401, Israel; Marra, F., Fredy and Nadine Herrmann Institute of Earth Sciences, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Edmond J. Safra Campus, Jerusalem, 9190401, Israel, National Research Council of Italy, Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, CNR-ISAC, Bologna, 40129, Italy; Enzel, Y., Fredy and Nadine Herrmann Institute of Earth Sciences, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Edmond J. Safra Campus, Jerusalem, 9190401, Israel; Rostkier-Edelstein, D., Fredy and Nadine Herrmann Institute of Earth Sciences, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Edmond J. Safra Campus, Jerusalem, 9190401, Israel, Department of Applied Mathematics, Environmental Sciences Division, IIBR, Ness-Ziona, 7410001, Israel; Morin, E., Fredy and Nadine Herrmann Institute of Earth Sciences, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Edmond J. Safra Campus, Jerusalem, 9190401, Israel
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Armon M.,Marra F.,Enzel Y.,et al. Radar-based characterisation of heavy precipitation in the eastern Mediterranean and its representation in a convection-permitting model[J],2020,24(3).
APA	Armon M.,Marra F.,Enzel Y.,Rostkier-Edelstein D.,&Morin E..(2020).Radar-based characterisation of heavy precipitation in the eastern Mediterranean and its representation in a convection-permitting model.Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,24(3).
MLA	Armon M.,et al."Radar-based characterisation of heavy precipitation in the eastern Mediterranean and its representation in a convection-permitting model".Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 24.3(2020).