气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Uncovering the shortcomings of a weather typing method

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DOI	10.5194/hess-24-2671-2020
	Uncovering the shortcomings of a weather typing method
	Van Uytven E.; De Niel J.; Willems P.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	1027-5606
起始页码	2671
结束页码	2686
卷号	24 期号:5
英文摘要	In recent years many methods for statistical downscaling of the precipitation climate model outputs have been developed. Statistical downscaling is performed under general and method-specific (structural) assumptions but those are rarely evaluated simultaneously. This paper illustrates the verification and evaluation of the downscaling assumptions for a weather typing method. Using the observations and outputs of a global climate model ensemble, the skill of the method is evaluated for precipitation downscaling in central Belgium during the winter season (December to February). Shortcomings of the studied method have been uncovered and are identified as biases and a time-variant predictor-predictand relationship. The predictor-predictand relationship is found to be informative for historical observations but becomes inaccurate for the projected climate model output. The latter inaccuracy is explained by the increased importance of the thermodynamic processes in the precipitation changes. The results therefore question the applicability of the weather typing method for the case study location. Besides the shortcomings, the results also demonstrate the added value of the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship for precipitation amount scaling. The verification and evaluation of the downscaling assumptions are a tool to design a statistical downscaling ensemble tailored to end-user needs. © 2020 Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.. All rights reserved.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Earth sciences; Hydrology; Clausius-Clapeyron relationship; Down-scaling; Global climate model; Historical observation; Precipitation change; Statistical downscaling; Thermodynamic process; Winter seasons; Climate models; climate modeling; downscaling; global climate; observational method; precipitation (climatology); prediction; thermodynamics; winter; Belgium
来源期刊	Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/159395
作者单位	Van Uytven, E., Department of Civil Engineering, Hydraulics Section, KU Leuven, Kasteelpark 40, box 2448, Leuven, 3001, Belgium; De Niel, J., Department of Civil Engineering, Hydraulics Section, KU Leuven, Kasteelpark 40, box 2448, Leuven, 3001, Belgium; Willems, P., Department of Civil Engineering, Hydraulics Section, KU Leuven, Kasteelpark 40, box 2448, Leuven, 3001, Belgium, Department of Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Pleinlaan 2, Brussels, 1050, Belgium
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Van Uytven E.,De Niel J.,Willems P.. Uncovering the shortcomings of a weather typing method[J],2020,24(5).
APA	Van Uytven E.,De Niel J.,&Willems P..(2020).Uncovering the shortcomings of a weather typing method.Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,24(5).
MLA	Van Uytven E.,et al."Uncovering the shortcomings of a weather typing method".Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 24.5(2020).