气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Risk assessment in water resources planning under climate change at the Júcar River basin

CCPortal

DOI	10.5194/hess-24-5297-2020
	Risk assessment in water resources planning under climate change at the Júcar River basin
	Suárez-Almiñana S.; Solera A.; Madrigal J.; Andreu J.; Paredes-Arquiola J.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	1027-5606
起始页码	5297
结束页码	5315
卷号	24 期号:11
英文摘要	Climate change and its possible effects on water resources has become an increasingly near threat. Therefore, the study of these impacts in highly regulated systems and those suffering extreme events is essential to deal with them effectively. This study responds to the need for an effective method to integrate climate change projections into water planning and management analysis in order to guide the decision-making, taking into account drought risk assessments. Therefore, this document presents a general and adaptive methodology based on a modeling chain and correction processes, whose main outcomes are the impacts on future natural inflows, a drought risk indicator, and the simulation of future water storage in the water resources system (WRS). This method was applied in the Júcar River basin (JRB) due to its complexity and the multiannual drought events it suffers recurrently. The results showed a worrying decrease in future inflows, as well as a high probability (≈80%) of being under 50 % of total capacity of the WRS in the near future. However, the uncertainty of the results was considerable from the mid-century onwards, indicating that the skill of climate projections needs to be improved in order to obtain more reliable results. Consequently, this paper also highlights the difficulties of developing this type of method, taking partial decisions to adapt them as far as possible to the basin in an attempt to obtain clearer conclusions on climate change impact assessments. Despite the high uncertainty, the results of the JRB call for action and the tool developed can be considered as a feasible and robust method to facilitate and support decision-making in complex basins for future water planning and management. © 2020 Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate change; Decision making; Drought; Risk assessment; Watersheds; Adaptive methodologies; Climate change impact assessments; Climate change projections; Climate projection; Correction process; Management analysis; Water resources planning; Water resources systems; Water resources; climate change; climate prediction; complexity; correction; extreme event; risk assessment; water management; water planning; water resource; Jucar Basin; Spain; Indicator indicator
来源期刊	Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/159262
作者单位	Suárez-Almiñana, S., Research Institute of Water and Environmental Engineering (IIAMA), Universitat Politècnica de València, Valencia, 46022, Spain; Solera, A., Research Institute of Water and Environmental Engineering (IIAMA), Universitat Politècnica de València, Valencia, 46022, Spain; Madrigal, J., Research Institute of Water and Environmental Engineering (IIAMA), Universitat Politècnica de València, Valencia, 46022, Spain; Andreu, J., Research Institute of Water and Environmental Engineering (IIAMA), Universitat Politècnica de València, Valencia, 46022, Spain; Paredes-Arquiola, J., Research Institute of Water and Environmental Engineering (IIAMA), Universitat Politècnica de València, Valencia, 46022, Spain
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Suárez-Almiñana S.,Solera A.,Madrigal J.,et al. Risk assessment in water resources planning under climate change at the Júcar River basin[J],2020,24(11).
APA	Suárez-Almiñana S.,Solera A.,Madrigal J.,Andreu J.,&Paredes-Arquiola J..(2020).Risk assessment in water resources planning under climate change at the Júcar River basin.Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,24(11).
MLA	Suárez-Almiñana S.,et al."Risk assessment in water resources planning under climate change at the Júcar River basin".Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 24.11(2020).