气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The future urban heat-wave challenge in Africa: Exploratory analysis

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DOI	10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102190
	The future urban heat-wave challenge in Africa: Exploratory analysis
	Marcotullio P.J.; Keßler C.; Fekete B.M.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0959-3780
卷号	66
英文摘要	Urbanization and climate change are among the most important global trends affecting human well-being during the twenty-first century. One region expected to undergo enormous urbanization and be significantly affected by climate change is Africa. Studies already find increases in temperature and high temperature events for the region. How many people will be exposed to heat events in the future remains unclear. This paper attempts to provide a first estimate of the number of African urban residents exposed to very warm 15-day heat events (>42 °C). Using the Shared Socio-economic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways framework we estimate the numbers of exposed, sensitive (those younger than 5 and older than 64 years), and those in low-income nations, with gross national products of $4000 ($2005, purchasing power parity), from 2010 to 2100. We examine heat events both with and without urban heat island estimates. Our results suggest that at the low end of the range, under pathways defined as sustainable (SSP 1) and low relative levels of climate change (RCP 2.6) without including the urban heat island effect there will be large populations (>300 million) exposed to very warm heat wave by 2100. Alternatively, by 2100, the high end exposure level is approximately 2.0 billion for SSP 4 under RCP 4.5 where the urban heat island effect is included. © 2020 Elsevier Ltd
英文关键词	Africa; Climate change; Exploratory scenarios; Exposure; Heat wave; Urban
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate change; developing world; estimation method; future prospect; heat island; heat wave; high temperature; socioeconomic conditions; twenty first century; urban area; urbanization; Africa
来源期刊	Global Environmental Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/159221
作者单位	Marcotullio, P.J., Institute for Sustainable Cities, Department of Geography, Hunter College, City University of New York (CUNY), 695 Park Ave, New York, NY 10065, United States; Keßler, C., Department of Planning, Technical Faculty of IT and Design, Aalborg University Copenhagen, A.C. Meyers Vænge 15, København SV, 2450, Denmark; Fekete, B.M., Grove School of Engineering, Steinman Hall T-188, City College of New York, CUNY, 160 Convent Ave, New York, NY 10031, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Marcotullio P.J.,Keßler C.,Fekete B.M.. The future urban heat-wave challenge in Africa: Exploratory analysis[J],2021,66.
APA	Marcotullio P.J.,Keßler C.,&Fekete B.M..(2021).The future urban heat-wave challenge in Africa: Exploratory analysis.Global Environmental Change,66.
MLA	Marcotullio P.J.,et al."The future urban heat-wave challenge in Africa: Exploratory analysis".Global Environmental Change 66(2021).