气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Rates of change in natural and anthropogenic radiative forcing over the past 20;000 years

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DOI	10.1073/pnas.0707386105
	Rates of change in natural and anthropogenic radiative forcing over the past 20;000 years
	Joos F.; Spahni R.
发表日期	2008
ISSN	0027-8424
起始页码	1425
结束页码	1430
卷号	105 期号:5
英文摘要	The rate of change of climate codetermines the global warming impacts on natural and socioeconomic systems and their capabilities to adapt. Establishing past rates of climate change from temperature proxy data remains difficult given their limited spatiotemporal resolution. In contrast, past greenhouse gas radiative forcing, causing climate to change, is well known from ice cores. We compare rates of change of anthropogenic forcing with rates of natural greenhouse gas forcing since the Last Glacial Maximum and of solar and volcanic forcing of the last millennium. The smoothing of atmospheric variations by the enclosure process of air into ice is computed with a firn diffusion and enclosure model. The 20th century increase in CO2 and its radiative forcing occurred more than an order of magnitude faster than any sustained change during the past 22,000 years. The average rate of increase in the radiative forcing not just from CO2 but from the combination of CO2, CH4, and N2O is larger during the Industrial Era than during any comparable period of at least the past 16,000 years. In addition, the decadal-to-century scale rate of change in anthropogenic forcing is unusually high in the context of the natural forcing variations (solar and volcanoes) of the past millennium. Our analysis implies that global climate change, which is anthropogenic in origin, is progressing at a speed that is unprecedented at least during the last 22,000 years. © 2008 by The National Academy of Sciences of the USA.
英文关键词	Climate change; Global warming; Greenhouse gas; Ice core
语种	英语
scopus关键词	carbon dioxide; methane; nitrous oxide; carbon dioxide; methane; nitrous oxide; air pollution control; air quality control; anthropology; article; climate change; diffusion; greenhouse effect; greenhouse gas; ice core record; nonhuman; priority journal; socioeconomics; temperature measurement; volcano; atmosphere; chemistry; climate; greenhouse effect; human; pollution; Atmosphere; Carbon Dioxide; Climate; Environmental Pollution; Greenhouse Effect; Humans; Methane; Nitrous Oxide
来源期刊	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/159177
作者单位	Joos, F., Physics Institute, Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Sidlerstrasse 5, CH-3012 Bern, Switzerland; Spahni, R., Physics Institute, Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Sidlerstrasse 5, CH-3012 Bern, Switzerland, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, Wills Memorial Building, Queen's Road, Bristol BS8 1RJ, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Joos F.,Spahni R.. Rates of change in natural and anthropogenic radiative forcing over the past 20;000 years[J],2008,105(5).
APA	Joos F.,&Spahni R..(2008).Rates of change in natural and anthropogenic radiative forcing over the past 20;000 years.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,105(5).
MLA	Joos F.,et al."Rates of change in natural and anthropogenic radiative forcing over the past 20;000 years".Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 105.5(2008).