气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Communicating the deadly consequences of global warming for human heat stress

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DOI	10.1073/pnas.1617526114
	Communicating the deadly consequences of global warming for human heat stress
	Matthews T.K.R.; Wilby R.L.; Murphy C.
发表日期	2017
ISSN	0027-8424
起始页码	3861
结束页码	3866
卷号	114 期号:15
英文摘要	In December of 2015, the international community pledged to limit global warming to below 2 °C above preindustrial (PI) to prevent dangerous climate change. However, to what extent, and for whom, is danger avoided if this ambitious target is realized? We address these questions by scrutinizing heat stress, because the frequency of extremely hot weather is expected to continue to rise in the approach to the 2 °C limit. We use analogs and the extreme South Asian heat of 2015 as a focusing event to help interpret the increasing frequency of deadly heat under specified amounts of global warming. Using a large ensemble of climate models, our results confirm that global mean air temperature is nonlinearly related to heat stress, meaning that the same future warming as realized to date could trigger larger increases in societal impacts than historically experienced. This nonlinearity is higher for heat stress metrics that integrate the effect of rising humidity. We show that, even in a climate held to 2 °C above PI, Karachi (Pakistan) and Kolkata (India) could expect conditions equivalent to their deadly 2015 heatwaves every year. With only 1.5 °C of global warming, twice as many megacities (such as Lagos, Nigeria, and Shanghai, China) could become heat stressed, exposing more than 350 million more people to deadly heat by 2050 under a midrange population growth scenario. The results underscore that, even if the Paris targets are realized, there could still be a significant adaptation imperative for vulnerable urban populations. © 2017, National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
英文关键词	Climate change; CMIP5; Extreme heat; Heat stress; Megacities
语种	英语
scopus关键词	air temperature; Article; climate; climate change; greenhouse effect; heat stress; human; humidity; Northern Hemisphere; population growth; priority journal; South Asian; vaporization; warming; China; heat injury; India; Nigeria; Pakistan; public health; urban health; urban population; China; Global Warming; Heat Stress Disorders; Humans; India; Nigeria; Pakistan; Public Health; Urban Health; Urban Population
来源期刊	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/159065
作者单位	Matthews, T.K.R., School of Natural Sciences and Psychology, Liverpool John Moores University, Liverpool, Merseyside, L3 3AF, United Kingdom; Wilby, R.L., Department of Geography, Loughborough University, Loughborough, Leicestershire, LE11 3TU, United Kingdom; Murphy, C., Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units (ICARUS), Department of Geography, Maynooth University, Kildare, Ireland
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Matthews T.K.R.,Wilby R.L.,Murphy C.. Communicating the deadly consequences of global warming for human heat stress[J],2017,114(15).
APA	Matthews T.K.R.,Wilby R.L.,&Murphy C..(2017).Communicating the deadly consequences of global warming for human heat stress.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,114(15).
MLA	Matthews T.K.R.,et al."Communicating the deadly consequences of global warming for human heat stress".Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 114.15(2017).