气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The Copenhagen accord for limiting global warming: Criteria; constraints; and available avenues

CCPortal

DOI	10.1073/pnas.1002293107
	The Copenhagen accord for limiting global warming: Criteria; constraints; and available avenues
	Ramanathan V.; Xu Y.
发表日期	2010
ISSN	0027-8424
起始页码	8055
结束页码	8062
卷号	107 期号:18
英文摘要	At last, all the major emitters of greenhouse gases (GHGs) have agreed under the Copenhagen Accord that global average temperature increase should be kept below 2°C. This study develops the criteria for limiting the warming below 2°C, identifies the constraints imposed on policy makers, and explores available mitigation avenues. One important criterion is that the radiant energy added by human activities should not exceed 2.5 (range: 1.7-4) watts per square meter (Wm-2) of the Earth's surface. The blanket of man-made GHGs has already added 3 (range: 2.6-3.5) Wm-2. Even if GHG emissions peak in 2015, the radiant energy barrier will be exceeded by 100%, requiring simultaneous pursuit of three avenues: (i) reduce the rate of thickening of the blanket by stabilizing CO2 concentration below 441 ppm during this century (a massive decarbonization of the energy sector is necessary to accomplish this Herculean task), (ii) ensure that air pollution laws that reduce the masking effect of cooling aerosols be made radiant energy-neutral by reductions in black carbon and ozone, and (iii) thin the blanket by reducing emissions of short-lived GHGs. Methane and hydrofluorocarbons emerge as the prime targets. These actions, even if we are restricted to available technologies for avenues ii and iii, can reduce the probability of exceeding the 2°C barrier before 2050 to less than 10%, and before 2100 to less than 50%. With such actions, the four decades we have until 2050 should be exploited to develop and scale-up revolutionary technologies to restrict the warming to less than 1.5°C.
英文关键词	Air pollution; Carbon dioxide; Climate change mitigation
语种	英语
scopus关键词	carbon dioxide; fluorinated hydrocarbon; methane; aerosol; air pollution; astronomy; climate; diagnostic test; greenhouse effect; greenhouse gas; health care policy; human; priority journal; radiation energy; review; Carbon Dioxide; Denmark; Global Warming; Green Chemistry Technology; Greenhouse Effect; Humans; Time Factors
来源期刊	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/159004
作者单位	Ramanathan, V., Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California at San Diego, San Diego, CA 92093, United States; Xu, Y., Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California at San Diego, San Diego, CA 92093, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ramanathan V.,Xu Y.. The Copenhagen accord for limiting global warming: Criteria; constraints; and available avenues[J],2010,107(18).
APA	Ramanathan V.,&Xu Y..(2010).The Copenhagen accord for limiting global warming: Criteria; constraints; and available avenues.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,107(18).
MLA	Ramanathan V.,et al."The Copenhagen accord for limiting global warming: Criteria; constraints; and available avenues".Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 107.18(2010).