气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The multimillennial sea-level commitment of global warming

CCPortal

DOI	10.1073/pnas.1219414110
	The multimillennial sea-level commitment of global warming
	Levermann A.; Clark P.U.; Marzeion B.; Milne G.A.; Pollard D.; Radic V.; Robinson A.
发表日期	2013
ISSN	0027-8424
起始页码	13745
结束页码	13750
卷号	110 期号:34
英文摘要	Global mean sea level has been steadily rising over the last century, is projected to increase by the end of this century, and will continue to rise beyond the year 2100 unless the current global mean temperature trend is reversed. Inertia in the climate and global carbon system, however, causes the global mean temperature to decline slowly even after greenhouse gas emissions have ceased, raising the question of how much sea-level commitment is expected for different levels of global mean temperature increase above preindustrial levels. Although sealevel rise over the last century has been dominated by ocean warming and loss of glaciers, the sensitivity suggested from records of past sea levels indicates important contributions should also be expected from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets. Uncertainties in the paleo-reconstructions, however, necessitate additional strategies to better constrain the sea-level commitment. Here we combine paleo-evidence with simulations from physical models to estimate the future sea-level commitment on a multimillennial time scale and compute associated regional sea-level patterns. Oceanic thermal expansion and the Antarctic Ice Sheet contribute quasi-linearly, with 0.4 m °C -1 and 1.2 m °C-1 of warming, respectively. The saturation of the contribution from glaciers is overcompensated by the nonlinear response of the Greenland Ice Sheet. As a consequence we are committed to a sea-level rise of approximately 2.3 m °C-1 within the next 2,000 y. Considering the lifetime of anthropogenic greenhouse gases, this imposes the need for fundamental adaptation strategies on multicentennial time scales.
英文关键词	Climate change; Climate impacts; Sea-level change
语种	英语
scopus关键词	adaptation; Antarctica; article; glacier; greenhouse effect; greenhouse gas; Greenland; ice sheet; physical model; priority journal; sea level; simulation; thermal analysis; time; chemistry; computer simulation; ice cover; sea; temperature; theoretical model; sea water; Antarctic Regions; Computer Simulation; Global Warming; Greenland; Ice Cover; Models, Theoretical; Oceans and Seas; Seawater; Temperature
来源期刊	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/158933
作者单位	Levermann, A., Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany, Institute of Physics, Potsdam University, 14476 Potsdam, Germany; Clark, P.U., College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331, United States; Marzeion, B., Center for Climate and Cryosphere, Institute for Meteorology and Geophysics, University of Innsbruck, 6020 Innsbruck, Austria; Milne, G.A., Department of Earth Sciences, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON K1N 6N5, Canada; Pollard, D., Earth and Environmental Systems Institute, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802, United States; Radic, V., University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada; Robinson, A., Universidad Complutense de Madrid, 28040 Madrid, Spain, Instituto de Geociencias, Universidad Complutense de Madrid-Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas, 28040 Madrid, Spain
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Levermann A.,Clark P.U.,Marzeion B.,et al. The multimillennial sea-level commitment of global warming[J],2013,110(34).
APA	Levermann A..,Clark P.U..,Marzeion B..,Milne G.A..,Pollard D..,...&Robinson A..(2013).The multimillennial sea-level commitment of global warming.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,110(34).
MLA	Levermann A.,et al."The multimillennial sea-level commitment of global warming".Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 110.34(2013).