气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): New Trans-Arctic shipping routes navigable by midcentury

CCPortal

DOI	10.1073/pnas.1214212110
	New Trans-Arctic shipping routes navigable by midcentury
	Smith L.C.; Stephenson S.R.
发表日期	2013
ISSN	0027-8424
起始页码	E1191
结束页码	E1195
卷号	110 期号:13
英文摘要	Recent historic observed lows in Arctic sea ice extent, together with climate model projections of additional ice reductions in the future, have fueled speculations of potential new trans-Arctic shipping routes linking the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. However, numerical studies of how projected geophysical changes in sea ice will realistically impact ship navigation are lacking. To address this deficiency, we analyze seven climate model projections of sea ice properties, assuming two different climate change scenarios [representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5] and two vessel classes, to assess future changes in peak season (September) Arctic shipping potential. By midcentury, changing sea ice conditions enable expanded September navigability for common open-water ships crossing the Arctic along the Northern Sea Route over the Russian Federation, robust new routes for moderately ice-strengthened (Polar Class 6) ships over the North Pole, and new routes through the Northwest Passage for both vessel classes. Although numerous other nonclimatic factors also limit Arctic shipping potential, these findings have important economic, strategic, environmental, and governance implications for the region. © PNAS 2013.
英文关键词	Arctic maritime development; Climate change; Global change; Human-environment; Marine transportation modeling
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Arctic; arctic climate; article; climate change; controlled study; global change; Netherlands; North America; priority journal; quantitative study; radiative forcing; Russian Federation; sea ice; seasonal variation; ship; shipping; simulation; time series analysis; winter
来源期刊	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/158931
作者单位	Smith, L.C., Department of Geography, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90095, United States; Stephenson, S.R., Department of Geography, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90095, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Smith L.C.,Stephenson S.R.. New Trans-Arctic shipping routes navigable by midcentury[J],2013,110(13).
APA	Smith L.C.,&Stephenson S.R..(2013).New Trans-Arctic shipping routes navigable by midcentury.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,110(13).
MLA	Smith L.C.,et al."New Trans-Arctic shipping routes navigable by midcentury".Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 110.13(2013).