气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Future sea level rise constrained by observations and long-term commitment

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DOI	10.1073/pnas.1500515113
	Future sea level rise constrained by observations and long-term commitment
	Mengel M.; Levermann A.; Frieler K.; Robinson A.; Marzeion B.; Winkelmann R.
发表日期	2016
ISSN	0027-8424
起始页码	2597
结束页码	2602
卷号	113 期号:10
英文摘要	Sea level has been steadily rising over the past century, predominantly due to anthropogenic climate change. The rate of sea level rise will keep increasing with continued global warming, and, even if temperatures are stabilized through the phasing out of greenhouse gas emissions, sea level is still expected to rise for centuries. This will affect coastal areas worldwide, and robust projections are needed to assess mitigation options and guide adaptation measures. Here we combine the equilibrium response of the main sea level rise contributions with their last century's observed contribution to constrain projections of future sea level rise. Our model is calibrated to a set of observations for each contribution, and the observational and climate uncertainties are combined to produce uncertainty ranges for 21st century sea level rise. We project anthropogenic sea level rise of 28-56 cm, 37-77 cm, and 57-131 cm in 2100 for the greenhouse gas concentration scenarios RCP26, RCP45, and RCP85, respectively. Our uncertainty ranges for total sea level rise overlap with the process-based estimates of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The "constrained extrapolation" approach generalizes earlier global semiempirical models and may therefore lead to a better understanding of the discrepancies with processbased projections.
英文关键词	Climate change; Climate impacts; Sea level rise
语种	英语
scopus关键词	anthropology; carbon footprint; climate change; Conference Paper; equilibrium constant; futurology; glacier; greenhouse gas; Greenland; observation; priority journal; sea level rise; surface property; thermal analysis
来源期刊	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/158907
作者单位	Mengel, M., Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, 14473, Germany, Physics Institute, Potsdam University, Potsdam, 14476, Germany; Levermann, A., Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, 14473, Germany, Physics Institute, Potsdam University, Potsdam, 14476, Germany, Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY 10964, United States; Frieler, K., Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, 14473, Germany; Robinson, A., Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, 14473, Germany, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Madrid, 28040, Spain, Instituto de Geociencias (IGEO), Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Madrid, 28040, Spain; Marzeion, B., Institute of Geography, University of Bremen, Bremen, 28359, Germany; Winkelmann, R., Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, 14473, Germany, Physics Institute, Potsdam University, Potsdam, 14476, Germany
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Mengel M.,Levermann A.,Frieler K.,et al. Future sea level rise constrained by observations and long-term commitment[J],2016,113(10).
APA	Mengel M.,Levermann A.,Frieler K.,Robinson A.,Marzeion B.,&Winkelmann R..(2016).Future sea level rise constrained by observations and long-term commitment.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,113(10).
MLA	Mengel M.,et al."Future sea level rise constrained by observations and long-term commitment".Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 113.10(2016).