气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Climate warming enhances snow avalanche risk in the Western Himalayas

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DOI	10.1073/pnas.1716913115
	Climate warming enhances snow avalanche risk in the Western Himalayas
	Ballesteros-Cánovas J.A.; Trappmann D.; Madrigal-González J.; Eckert N.; Stoffel M.
发表日期	2018
ISSN	0027-8424
起始页码	3410
结束页码	3415
卷号	115 期号:13
英文摘要	Ongoing climate warming has been demonstrated to impact the cryosphere in the Indian Himalayas, with substantial consequences for the risk of disasters, human well-being, and terrestrial ecosystems. Here, we present evidence that the warming observed in recent decades has been accompanied by increased snow avalanche frequency in the Western Indian Himalayas. Using dendrogeomorphic techniques, we reconstruct the longest time series (150 y) of the occurrence and runout distances of snow avalanches that is currently available for the Himalayas. We apply a generalized linear autoregressive moving average model to demonstrate linkages between climate warming and the observed increase in the incidence of snow avalanches. Warming air temperatures in winter and early spring have indeed favored the wetting of snow and the formation of wet snow avalanches, which are now able to reach down to subalpine slopes, where they have high potential to cause damage. These findings contradict the intuitive notion that warming results in less snow, and thus lower avalanche activity, and have major implications for the Western Himalayan region, an area where human pressure is constantly increasing. Specifically, increasing traffic on a steadily expanding road network is calling for an immediate design of risk mitigation strategies and disaster risk policies to enhance climate change adaption in the wider study region. © 2018 National Academy of Sciences. All Rights Reserved.
英文关键词	Climate change; Cryosphere; Himalayas; Snow avalanche; Tree rings
语种	英语
scopus关键词	air temperature; article; avalanche; climate warming; cryosphere; disaster; human; incidence; spring; time series analysis; winter
来源期刊	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/158884
作者单位	Ballesteros-Cánovas, J.A., Climate Change Impacts and Risks in the Anthropocene, Institute for Environmental Sciences, University of Geneva, Geneva, CH-1205, Switzerland, dendrolab.ch, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Geneva, Geneva, CH-1205, Switzerland; Trappmann, D., Climate Change Impacts and Risks in the Anthropocene, Institute for Environmental Sciences, University of Geneva, Geneva, CH-1205, Switzerland, dendrolab.ch, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Geneva, Geneva, CH-1205, Switzerland; Madrigal-González, J., Climate Change Impacts and Risks in the Anthropocene, Institute for Environmental Sciences, University of Geneva, Geneva, CH-1205, Switzerland, Forest Ecology and Restoration Group, Facultad de Biología, Química y Ciencias Ambientales, Universidad de Alcalá, Alcalá de HenaresES-28805, Spain; Eckert, N., Unité de Recherche (UR) Érosion Torrentielle, Neige et Avalanches (ETNA), Irstea Grenoble/Université Grenoble Alpes, Saint Martin d’Hères, 38402, France; Stoffel, M., Cli...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ballesteros-Cánovas J.A.,Trappmann D.,Madrigal-González J.,et al. Climate warming enhances snow avalanche risk in the Western Himalayas[J],2018,115(13).
APA	Ballesteros-Cánovas J.A.,Trappmann D.,Madrigal-González J.,Eckert N.,&Stoffel M..(2018).Climate warming enhances snow avalanche risk in the Western Himalayas.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,115(13).
MLA	Ballesteros-Cánovas J.A.,et al."Climate warming enhances snow avalanche risk in the Western Himalayas".Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 115.13(2018).