气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Hazard from Himalayan glacier lake outburst floods

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DOI	10.1073/pnas.1914898117
	Hazard from Himalayan glacier lake outburst floods
	Veh G.; Korup O.; Walz A.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0027-8424
起始页码	907
结束页码	912
卷号	117 期号:2
英文摘要	Sustained glacier melt in the Himalayas has gradually spawned more than 5,000 glacier lakes that are dammed by potentially unstable moraines. When such dams break, glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs) can cause catastrophic societal and geomorphic impacts. We present a robust probabilistic estimate of average GLOFs return periods in the Himalayan region, drawing on 5.4 billion simulations. We find that the 100-y outburst flood has an average volume of 33.5+3.7/−3.7 × 106 m3 (posterior mean and 95% highest density interval [HDI]) with a peak discharge of 15,600+2,000/−1,800 m3•s−1. Our estimated GLOF hazard is tied to the rate of historic lake outbursts and the number of present lakes, which both are highest in the Eastern Himalayas. There, the estimated 100-y GLOF discharge (∼14,500 m3•s−1) is more than 3 times that of the adjacent Nyainqentanglha Mountains, and at least an order of magnitude higher than in the Hindu Kush, Karakoram, and Western Himalayas. The GLOF hazard may increase in these regions that currently have large glaciers, but few lakes, if future projected ice loss generates more unstable moraine-dammed lakes than we recognize today. Flood peaks from GLOFs mostly attenuate within Himalayan headwaters, but can rival monsoon-fed discharges in major rivers hundreds to thousands of kilometers downstream. Projections of future hazard from meteorological floods need to account for the extreme runoffs during lake outbursts, given the increasing trends in population, infrastructure, and hydropower projects in Himalayan headwaters. © 2020 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
英文关键词	Atmospheric warming; Bayesian modeling; Extreme-value statistics; GLOF; Meltwater lakes
语种	英语
scopus关键词	article; flooding; glacier; Hindu; human; human experiment; hydropower; lake; river; warming; environmental monitoring; freezing; greenhouse effect; ice cover; India; theoretical model; Tibet; water supply; ground water; Environmental Monitoring; Floods; Freezing; Global Warming; Groundwater; Ice Cover; India; Lakes; Models, Theoretical; Rivers; Tibet; Water Resources
来源期刊	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/158855
作者单位	Veh, G., Institute of Environmental Science and Geography, University of Potsdam, Potsdam-Golm, 14476, Germany; Korup, O., Institute of Environmental Science and Geography, University of Potsdam, Potsdam-Golm, 14476, Germany, Institute of Geosciences, University of Potsdam, Potsdam-Golm, 14476, Germany; Walz, A., Institute of Environmental Science and Geography, University of Potsdam, Potsdam-Golm, 14476, Germany
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Veh G.,Korup O.,Walz A.. Hazard from Himalayan glacier lake outburst floods[J],2020,117(2).
APA	Veh G.,Korup O.,&Walz A..(2020).Hazard from Himalayan glacier lake outburst floods.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,117(2).
MLA	Veh G.,et al."Hazard from Himalayan glacier lake outburst floods".Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 117.2(2020).