气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Modeling, prediction and trend assessment of drought in Iran using standardized precipitation index

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DOI	10.2166/wcc.2018.174
	Modeling, prediction and trend assessment of drought in Iran using standardized precipitation index
	Bahrami M.; Bazrkar S.; Zarei A.R.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	20402244
起始页码	181
结束页码	196
卷号	10 期号:1
英文摘要	Drought as an exigent natural phenomenon, with high frequency in arid and semi-arid regions, leads to enormous damage to agriculture, economy, and environment. In this study, the seasonal Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) drought index and time series models were employed to model and predict seasonal drought using climate data of 38 Iranian synoptic stations during 1967–2014. In order to model and predict seasonal drought ITSM (Interactive Time Series Modeling) statistical software was used. According to the calculated seasonal SPI, within the study area, drought severity classes 4 and 3 had the greatest occurrence frequency, while classes 6 and 7 had the least occurrence frequency. Results indicated that the best fitted models were Moving-Average or MA (5) Innovations and MA (5) Hannan-Rissenen, with 60.53 and 15.79 percentage, respectively. On the other hand, results of the prediction as well, indicated that drought class 4 with the highest percentages, was the most abundant class over the study area and drought class 7 was the least frequent class. According to results of trend analysis, without attention to significance of them, observed seasonal SPI data series (1967–2014), in 84.21% of synoptic stations had a negative trend, but this percentage changes to 86.84% when studying the combination of observed and predicted simultaneously (1967–2019). © IWA Publishing 2019.
英文关键词	Modeling; Prediction; Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI); Statistical test; Time series models
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate models; Forecasting; Models; Statistical tests; Stream flow; Time series; Arid and semi-arid regions; High frequency HF; Natural phenomena; Seasonal droughts; Standardized precipitation index; Statistical software; Time series modeling; Time series models; Drought; drought; hydrological modeling; prediction; seasonal variation; time series analysis; trend analysis; Iran
来源期刊	Journal of Water and Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/157034
作者单位	Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, Fasa University, Fasa, Iran; Department of Range and Watershed Management, Faculty of Agriculture, Fasa University, Fasa, Iran
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Bahrami M.,Bazrkar S.,Zarei A.R.. Modeling, prediction and trend assessment of drought in Iran using standardized precipitation index[J],2019,10(1).
APA	Bahrami M.,Bazrkar S.,&Zarei A.R..(2019).Modeling, prediction and trend assessment of drought in Iran using standardized precipitation index.Journal of Water and Climate Change,10(1).
MLA	Bahrami M.,et al."Modeling, prediction and trend assessment of drought in Iran using standardized precipitation index".Journal of Water and Climate Change 10.1(2019).