气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Idf curves for future climate scenarios in a locality of the Tapajós Basin, Amazon, Brazil

CCPortal

DOI	10.2166/wcc.2019.202
	Idf curves for future climate scenarios in a locality of the Tapajós Basin, Amazon, Brazil
	Costa C.E.A.S.; Blanco C.J.C.; de Oliveira-Júnior J.F.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	20402244
起始页码	760
结束页码	770
卷号	11 期号:3
英文摘要	Changes in the global climate are attributed to the levels of greenhouse gases. Thus, future scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways – RCPs) have been developed to explore the impact of different climate policies on the world. The RCPs are essential tools for General Circulation Models (GCMs) to simulate future climate changes. Curves that associate Intensity, Duration and Frequency (IDF) are used in forecasts and are fundamental for the design of hydraulic projects and risk management. The objective of this study was to design IDF curves for the RCP 4.5 and 8.5, using data from the HadGEM2-ES, CanESM2 and MIROC5 models. The Equidistance Quantile Matching Method was used to design the IDF curves. The simulated curves presented differences when related to the existing curve. The largest differences were for the MIROC5 (146% in RCP 8.5) and the smallest differences were for the CanESM2 (20.83% for RCP 8.5). This result demonstrates that the method incorporates changes in future climate variability. The spatial resolutions of each model influenced their IDF curves, which led the CanESM2 curves to not present satisfactory results that are different from the MIROC5 curves, which were the ones that best represented the possible future differences. © IWA Publishing 2020.
英文关键词	Climate change; Hydraulic projects; Risk management
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate change; Greenhouse gases; Risk management; Climate policy; Future climate scenarios; General circulation model; Global climates; Hydraulic projects; Matching methods; Possible futures; Spatial resolution; Climate models; climate change; climate modeling; computer simulation; future prospect; global climate; model test; model validation; weather forecasting; Amazonia; Brazil; Tapajos Basin
来源期刊	Journal of Water and Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/157005
作者单位	Graduate Program in Civil Engineering (PPGEC), Federal University of Pará (UFPA), Belém, Pará 66075-110, Brazil; Institute of Atmospheric Sciences (ICAT), Federal University of Alagoas (UFAL), Maceió, Alagoas 57072-260, Brazil
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Costa C.E.A.S.,Blanco C.J.C.,de Oliveira-Júnior J.F.. Idf curves for future climate scenarios in a locality of the Tapajós Basin, Amazon, Brazil[J],2020,11(3).
APA	Costa C.E.A.S.,Blanco C.J.C.,&de Oliveira-Júnior J.F..(2020).Idf curves for future climate scenarios in a locality of the Tapajós Basin, Amazon, Brazil.Journal of Water and Climate Change,11(3).
MLA	Costa C.E.A.S.,et al."Idf curves for future climate scenarios in a locality of the Tapajós Basin, Amazon, Brazil".Journal of Water and Climate Change 11.3(2020).