气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Initialization and Ensemble Generation for Decadal Climate Predictions: A Comparison of Different Methods

CCPortal

DOI	10.1029/2018MS001439
	Initialization and Ensemble Generation for Decadal Climate Predictions: A Comparison of Different Methods
	Polkova I.; Brune S.; Kadow C.; Romanova V.; Gollan G.; Baehr J.; Glowienka-Hense R.; Greatbatch R.J.; Hense A.; Illing S.; Köhl A.; Kröger J.; Müller W.A.; Pankatz K.; Stammer D.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	19422466
起始页码	149
结束页码	172
卷号	11 期号:1
英文摘要	Five initialization and ensemble generation methods are investigated with respect to their impact on the prediction skill of the German decadal prediction system “Mittelfristige Klimaprognose” (MiKlip). Among the tested methods, three tackle aspects of model-consistent initialization using the ensemble Kalman filter, the filtered anomaly initialization, and the initialization method by partially coupled spin-up (MODINI). The remaining two methods alter the ensemble generation: the ensemble dispersion filter corrects each ensemble member with the ensemble mean during model integration. And the bred vectors perturb the climate state using the fastest growing modes. The new methods are compared against the latest MiKlip system in the low-resolution configuration (Preop-LR), which uses lagging the climate state by a few days for ensemble generation and nudging toward ocean and atmosphere reanalyses for initialization. Results show that the tested methods provide an added value for the prediction skill as compared to Preop-LR in that they improve prediction skill over the eastern and central Pacific and different regions in the North Atlantic Ocean. In this respect, the ensemble Kalman filter and filtered anomaly initialization show the most distinct improvements over Preop-LR for surface temperatures and upper ocean heat content, followed by the bred vectors, the ensemble dispersion filter, and MODINI. However, no single method exists that is superior to the others with respect to all metrics considered. In particular, all methods affect the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in different ways, both with respect to the basin-wide long-term mean and variability and with respect to the temporal evolution at the 26° N latitude. ©2019. The Authors.
英文关键词	decadal prediction system; ensemble generation methods; initialization methods
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Dispersions; Forecasting; Oceanography; Atlantic meridional overturning circulations; Climate prediction; Decadal predictions; Ensemble Kalman Filter; Generation method; Initialization methods; North Atlantic Ocean; Surface temperatures; Kalman filters; anomaly; climate modeling; climate prediction; comparative study; decadal variation; ensemble forecasting; meridional circulation; overturn; sea surface temperature; upper ocean; vector; Atlantic Ocean; Atlantic Ocean (North)
来源期刊	Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/156992
作者单位	Institute of Oceanography, Universität Hamburg, CEN, Hamburg, Germany; Institute for Meteorology, Freie Universität Berlin, Berlin, Germany; Meteorological Institute, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany; GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Kiel, Germany; Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany; Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach, Germany
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Polkova I.,Brune S.,Kadow C.,et al. Initialization and Ensemble Generation for Decadal Climate Predictions: A Comparison of Different Methods[J],2019,11(1).
APA	Polkova I..,Brune S..,Kadow C..,Romanova V..,Gollan G..,...&Stammer D..(2019).Initialization and Ensemble Generation for Decadal Climate Predictions: A Comparison of Different Methods.Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems,11(1).
MLA	Polkova I.,et al."Initialization and Ensemble Generation for Decadal Climate Predictions: A Comparison of Different Methods".Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems 11.1(2019).