气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble: Enabling the Exploration of Climate System Variability

CCPortal

DOI	10.1029/2019MS001639
	The Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble: Enabling the Exploration of Climate System Variability
	Maher N.; Milinski S.; Suarez-Gutierrez L.; Botzet M.; Dobrynin M.; Kornblueh L.; Kröger J.; Takano Y.; Ghosh R.; Hedemann C.; Li C.; Li H.; Manzini E.; Notz D.; Putrasahan D.; Boysen L.; Claussen M.; Ilyina T.; Olonscheck D.; Raddatz T.; Stevens B.; Marotzke J.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	19422466
起始页码	2050
结束页码	2069
卷号	11 期号:7
英文摘要	The Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble (MPI-GE) is the largest ensemble of a single comprehensive climate model currently available, with 100 members for the historical simulations (1850–2005) and four forcing scenarios. It is currently the only large ensemble available that includes scenario representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6 and a 1% CO2 scenario. These advantages make MPI-GE a powerful tool. We present an overview of MPI-GE, its components, and detail the experiments completed. We demonstrate how to separate the forced response from internal variability in a large ensemble. This separation allows the quantification of both the forced signal under climate change and the internal variability to unprecedented precision. We then demonstrate multiple ways to evaluate MPI-GE and put observations in the context of a large ensemble, including a novel approach for comparing model internal variability with estimated observed variability. Finally, we present four novel analyses, which can only be completed using a large ensemble. First, we address whether temperature and precipitation have a pathway dependence using the forcing scenarios. Second, the forced signal of the highly noisy atmospheric circulation is computed, and different drivers are identified to be important for the North Pacific and North Atlantic regions. Third, we use the ensemble dimension to investigate the time dependency of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation variability changes under global warming. Last, sea level pressure is used as an example to demonstrate how MPI-GE can be utilized to estimate the ensemble size needed for a given scientific problem and provide insights for future ensemble projects. ©2019. The Authors.
英文关键词	forced response; internal variability; large ensemble; MPI-GE
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Global warming; Sea level; Atlantic meridional overturning circulations; Atmospheric circulation; Forced response; Historical simulation; Internal variability; large ensemble; Max Planck Institute; Sea level pressure; Climate models; air temperature; atmospheric circulation; carbon dioxide; climate change; climate forcing; climate modeling; climate variation; experimental study; historical record; precipitation (climatology); precision; scenario analysis; Atlantic Ocean; Atlantic Ocean (North); Pacific Ocean; Pacific Ocean (North)
来源期刊	Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/156978
作者单位	Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany; International Max Planck Research School on Earth System Modelling, Hamburg, Germany; Centrum für Erdsystemforschung und Nachhaltigkeit (CEN, Universität Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany; Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD), Hamburg, Germany
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Maher N.,Milinski S.,Suarez-Gutierrez L.,et al. The Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble: Enabling the Exploration of Climate System Variability[J],2019,11(7).
APA	Maher N..,Milinski S..,Suarez-Gutierrez L..,Botzet M..,Dobrynin M..,...&Marotzke J..(2019).The Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble: Enabling the Exploration of Climate System Variability.Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems,11(7).
MLA	Maher N.,et al."The Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble: Enabling the Exploration of Climate System Variability".Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems 11.7(2019).