气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Representation of Model Error in Convective-Scale Data Assimilation: Additive Noise Based on Model Truncation Error

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DOI	10.1029/2018MS001546
	Representation of Model Error in Convective-Scale Data Assimilation: Additive Noise Based on Model Truncation Error
	Zeng Y.; Janjić T.; Sommer M.; de Lozar A.; Blahak U.; Seifert A.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	19422466
起始页码	752
结束页码	770
卷号	11 期号:3
英文摘要	To account for model error on multiple scales in convective-scale data assimilation, we incorporate the small-scale additive noise based on random samples of model truncation error and combine it with the large-scale additive noise based on random samples from global climatological atmospheric background error covariance. A series of experiments have been executed in the framework of the operational Kilometre-scale ENsemble Data Assimilation system of the Deutscher Wetterdienst for a 2-week period with different types of synoptic forcing of convection (i.e., strong or weak forcing). It is shown that the combination of large- and small-scale additive noise is better than the application of large-scale noise only. The specific increase in the background ensemble spread during data assimilation enhances the quality of short-term 6-hr precipitation forecasts. The improvement is especially significant during the weak forcing period, since the small-scale additive noise increases the small-scale variability which may favor occurrence of convection. It is also shown that additional perturbation of vertical velocity can further advance the performance of combination. ©2019. The Authors.
英文关键词	additive noise; model truncation error; multiscale; probabilistic forecasts; radar data assimilation
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Additives; Errors; Weather forecasting; Background-error covariances; Ensemble data assimilation; multiscale; Precipitation forecast; Probabilistic forecasts; Radar data assimilation; Small scale variability; Truncation errors; Additive noise; additive; atmospheric modeling; climate forcing; convective system; data assimilation; error analysis; experimental study; forecasting method; noise; numerical model; probability; radar
来源期刊	Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/156941
作者单位	Meteorologisches Institut, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, Munich, Germany; Hans Ertel Centre for Weather Research, Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach, Germany; Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach, Germany
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zeng Y.,Janjić T.,Sommer M.,et al. Representation of Model Error in Convective-Scale Data Assimilation: Additive Noise Based on Model Truncation Error[J],2019,11(3).
APA	Zeng Y.,Janjić T.,Sommer M.,de Lozar A.,Blahak U.,&Seifert A..(2019).Representation of Model Error in Convective-Scale Data Assimilation: Additive Noise Based on Model Truncation Error.Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems,11(3).
MLA	Zeng Y.,et al."Representation of Model Error in Convective-Scale Data Assimilation: Additive Noise Based on Model Truncation Error".Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems 11.3(2019).