气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Maximizing Simulated Tropical Cyclone Intensity With Action Minimization

CCPortal

DOI	10.1029/2018MS001419
	Maximizing Simulated Tropical Cyclone Intensity With Action Minimization
	Plotkin D.A.; Webber R.J.; O'Neill M.E.; Weare J.; Abbot D.S.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	19422466
起始页码	863
结束页码	891
卷号	11 期号:4
英文摘要	Direct computer simulation of intense tropical cyclones (TCs) in weather models is limited by computational expense. Intense TCs are rare and have small-scale structures, making it difficult to produce large ensembles of storms at high resolution. Further, models often fail to capture the process of rapid intensification, which is a distinguishing feature of many intense TCs. Understanding rapid intensification is especially important in the context of global warming, which may increase the frequency of intense TCs. To better leverage computational resources for the study of rapid intensification, we introduce an action minimization algorithm applied to the Weather Research and Forecasting and WRFPLUS models. Action minimization nudges the model into forming more intense TCs than it otherwise would; it does so via the maximum likelihood path in a stochastic formulation of the model, thereby allowing targeted study of intensification mechanisms. We apply action minimization to simulations of Hurricanes Danny (2015) and Fred (2009) at 6-km resolution to demonstrate that the algorithm consistently intensifies TCs via physically plausible pathways. We show an approximately tenfold computational savings using action minimization to study the tail of the TC intensification distribution. Further, for Hurricanes Danny and Fred, action minimization produces perturbations that preferentially reduce low-level shear as compared to upper-level shear, at least above a threshold of approximately 4 m/s. We also demonstrate that asymmetric, time-dependent patterns of heating can cause significant TC intensification beyond symmetric, azimuthally averaged heating and find a regime of nonlinear response to asymmetric heating that has not been extensively studied in previous work. ©2019. The Authors.
英文关键词	action minimization; rapid intensification; tropical cyclone; WRF
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Global warming; Maximum likelihood; Stochastic models; Stochastic systems; Storms; Tropics; Weather forecasting; Computational resources; Minimization algorithms; Rapid intensification; Small-scale structures; Stochastic formulation; Tropical cyclone; Tropical cyclone intensity; Weather research and forecasting; Hurricanes; algorithm; computer simulation; global warming; Hurricane Sandy 2012; simulation; tropical cyclone; weather forecasting
来源期刊	Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/156935
作者单位	Department of the Geophysical Sciences, The University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, United States; Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences, New York University, New York, NY, United States; Department of Earth System Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Plotkin D.A.,Webber R.J.,O'Neill M.E.,et al. Maximizing Simulated Tropical Cyclone Intensity With Action Minimization[J],2019,11(4).
APA	Plotkin D.A.,Webber R.J.,O'Neill M.E.,Weare J.,&Abbot D.S..(2019).Maximizing Simulated Tropical Cyclone Intensity With Action Minimization.Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems,11(4).
MLA	Plotkin D.A.,et al."Maximizing Simulated Tropical Cyclone Intensity With Action Minimization".Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems 11.4(2019).