气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Quantifying Uncertainties of Ground-Level Ozone Within WRF-Chem Simulations in the Mid-Atlantic Region of the United States as a Response to Variability

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DOI	10.1029/2018MS001457
	Quantifying Uncertainties of Ground-Level Ozone Within WRF-Chem Simulations in the Mid-Atlantic Region of the United States as a Response to Variability
	Thomas A.; Huff A.K.; Hu X.-M.; Zhang F.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	19422466
起始页码	1100
结束页码	1116
卷号	11 期号:4
英文摘要	Understanding forecast uncertainties and error growth dynamics is a prerequisite for improving dynamical prediction of meteorology and air quality. While predictability of meteorology has been investigated over the past few decades, the uncertainties in air quality simulations are less well known. This study explores the uncertainties in predicting ground-level ozone (O3) in the Mid-Atlantic region of the United States during June 2016 through a series of simulations using WRF-Chem, focusing on the sensitivity to the meteorological initial and boundary conditions (IC/BCs), emissions inventory (EI), and planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme. The average uncertainty of ground-level maximum 8-hr average O3 mixing ratio (MD8-O3) was most sensitive to uncertainties in the IC/BCs, while uncertainty in the EI was of secondary importance, and was least sensitive was to the use of different PBL schemes. Updating the NO emissions in the EI had the greatest influence on the accuracy, with an estimated decrease of 0.59 ppbv/year in the root-mean-square error and an average decrease of 0.63 ppbv/year in the values of modeled MD8-O3. Our study suggests using perturbations in IC/BCs may lead to a more dispersive ensemble of O3 prediction than using different PBL schemes and/or different EI. However, considering the combined uncertainties from all three sources examined are still smaller than the averaged root-mean-square errors of predicted O3 against observations, there are apparent other sources of uncertainties not studied that need to be considered in future ensemble predictions of O3. ©2019. The Authors.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Air quality; Boundary layers; Errors; Integrated circuits; Mean square error; Meteorology; Ozone; Air quality simulation; Combined uncertainty; Dynamical predictions; Forecast uncertainty; Initial and boundary conditions; Planetary boundary layers; Root mean square errors; Sources of uncertainty; Forecasting; air quality; boundary condition; emission inventory; ground-based measurement; ozone; quantitative analysis; simulation; uncertainty analysis; weather forecasting; Mid-Atlantic States; United States
来源期刊	Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/156924
作者单位	Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, United States; Center for Advanced Data Assimilation and Predictability Techniques, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, United States; Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms, and School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Thomas A.,Huff A.K.,Hu X.-M.,et al. Quantifying Uncertainties of Ground-Level Ozone Within WRF-Chem Simulations in the Mid-Atlantic Region of the United States as a Response to Variability[J],2019,11(4).
APA	Thomas A.,Huff A.K.,Hu X.-M.,&Zhang F..(2019).Quantifying Uncertainties of Ground-Level Ozone Within WRF-Chem Simulations in the Mid-Atlantic Region of the United States as a Response to Variability.Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems,11(4).
MLA	Thomas A.,et al."Quantifying Uncertainties of Ground-Level Ozone Within WRF-Chem Simulations in the Mid-Atlantic Region of the United States as a Response to Variability".Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems 11.4(2019).