气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Ensembles of Global Climate Model Variants Designed for the Quantification and Constraint of Uncertainty in Aerosols and Their Radiative Forcing

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DOI	10.1029/2019MS001628
	Ensembles of Global Climate Model Variants Designed for the Quantification and Constraint of Uncertainty in Aerosols and Their Radiative Forcing
	Yoshioka M.; Regayre L.A.; Pringle K.J.; Johnson J.S.; Mann G.W.; Partridge D.G.; Sexton D.M.H.; Lister G.M.S.; Schutgens N.; Stier P.; Kipling Z.; Bellouin N.; Browse J.; Booth B.B.B.; Johnson C.E.; Johnson B.; Mollard J.D.P.; Lee L.; Carslaw K.S.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	19422466
起始页码	3728
结束页码	3754
卷号	11 期号:11
英文摘要	Tropospheric aerosol radiative forcing has persisted for many years as one of the major causes of uncertainty in global climate model simulations. To sample the range of plausible aerosol and atmospheric states and perform robust statistical analyses of the radiative forcing, it is important to account for the combined effects of many sources of model uncertainty, which is rarely done due to the high computational cost. This paper describes the designs of two ensembles of the Met Office Hadley Centre Global Environment Model-U.K. Chemistry and Aerosol global climate model and provides the first analyses of the uncertainties in aerosol radiative forcing and their causes. The first ensemble was designed to comprehensively sample uncertainty in the aerosol state, while the other samples additional uncertainties in the physical model related to clouds, humidity, and radiation, thereby allowing an analysis of uncertainty in the aerosol effective radiative forcing. Each ensemble consists of around 200 simulations of the preindustrial and present-day atmospheres. The uncertainty in aerosol radiative forcing in our ensembles is comparable to the range of estimates from multimodel intercomparison projects. The mean aerosol effective radiative forcing is −1.45 W/m2 (credible interval of −2.07 to −0.81 W/m2), which encompasses but is more negative than the −1.17 W/m2 in the 2013 Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project and −0.90 W/m2 in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. The ensembles can be used to reduce aerosol radiative forcing uncertainty by challenging them with multiple measurements as well as to isolate potential causes of multimodel differences. ©2019. The Authors.
英文关键词	aerosols; emulators; ERF; perturbed parameter ensemble; radiative forcing; uncertainty
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Aerosols; Atmospheric chemistry; Atmospheric humidity; Atmospheric radiation; Chemical analysis; Climate change; Climate models; Aerosol radiative forcing; emulators; Global climate model simulations; Intergovernmental panel on climate changes; perturbed parameter ensemble; Radiative forcings; Robust statistical analysis; uncertainty; Uncertainty analysis; aerosol; atmospheric chemistry; climate change; climate modeling; ensemble forecasting; global climate; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; radiative forcing; troposphere; uncertainty analysis
来源期刊	Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/156842
作者单位	School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom; National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom; College of Engineering, Mathematics, and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom; U.K. Hadley Centre Met Office, Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom; National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, Department of Physics, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; Now at Cluster Earth & Climate, Faculty of Science, VU University Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands; Now at European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom; Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; Center for Geography, Environment and Society, University of Exeter, Penryn, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Yoshioka M.,Regayre L.A.,Pringle K.J.,et al. Ensembles of Global Climate Model Variants Designed for the Quantification and Constraint of Uncertainty in Aerosols and Their Radiative Forcing[J],2019,11(11).
APA	Yoshioka M..,Regayre L.A..,Pringle K.J..,Johnson J.S..,Mann G.W..,...&Carslaw K.S..(2019).Ensembles of Global Climate Model Variants Designed for the Quantification and Constraint of Uncertainty in Aerosols and Their Radiative Forcing.Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems,11(11).
MLA	Yoshioka M.,et al."Ensembles of Global Climate Model Variants Designed for the Quantification and Constraint of Uncertainty in Aerosols and Their Radiative Forcing".Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems 11.11(2019).