气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): A Bayesian Model Averaging approach for modelling tree mortality in relation to site, competition and climatic factors for Chinese fir plantations

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.foreco.2019.03.003
	A Bayesian Model Averaging approach for modelling tree mortality in relation to site, competition and climatic factors for Chinese fir plantations
	Lu L.; Wang H.; Chhin S.; Duan A.; Zhang J.; Zhang X.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0378-1127
起始页码	169
结束页码	177
卷号	440
英文摘要	Relationships between tree mortality and endogenous factors and climate factors have emerged as important concerns, and logistic stepwise regression is widely used for modeling the relationships. However, this method subsequently ignores both the variables not selected because of insignificance, and the model uncertainty due to the variable selection process. Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) selects all possible models and uses the posterior probabilities of these models to perform all inferences and predictions. In this study, Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) and logistic stepwise regression were used to analyze tree mortality in relation to competition, site index, and climatic factors in Chinese fir (Cunninghamia lanceolata (Lamb.) plantations established at five initial planting densities (A: 1667, B: 3333, C: 5000, D: 6667, and E: 10,000 trees/ha). Results showed that the posterior probability of the best model acquired by stepwise regression was less than that of the best model (highest posterior probability) acquired by BMA for pooling the data and density level D. Especially in the other planting densities, the model selected by stepwise regression was not in the BMA models. It indicates that the BMA method performed better than logistic stepwise regression, because BMA gave accurate posterior probability by taking into account the uncertainty of the model. In addition, the mortality increased with high competition and decreased with increasing temperature. The research has important implications for managing Chinese fir plantations under climate change. © 2019 Elsevier B.V.
英文关键词	Bayesian Model Averaging; Chinese fir; Climate factors; Endogenous factors; Logistic stepwise regression; Tree mortality
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Bayesian networks; Climate change; Forestry; Regression analysis; Uncertainty analysis; Bayesian model averaging; Chinese fir; Climate factors; Endogenous factors; Stepwise regression; Tree mortality; Climate models; climate change; coniferous tree; ecological modeling; environmental factor; mortality; regression analysis; street vendor; temperature effect; Abies; Chinese; Competition; Forestry; Mortality; Plantations; Regression Analysis; Trees; Cunninghamia lanceolata
来源期刊	Forest Ecology and Management
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/156069
作者单位	Key Laboratory of Tree Breeding and Cultivation of the State Forestry Administration, Research Institute of Forestry, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing, 100091, China; Collaborative Innovation Center of Sustainable Forestry in Southern China, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing, 210037, China; Division of Forestry and Natural Resources, West Virginia University, 322, Percival Hall, PO Box, 6125, Morgantown, WV 26506, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Lu L.,Wang H.,Chhin S.,et al. A Bayesian Model Averaging approach for modelling tree mortality in relation to site, competition and climatic factors for Chinese fir plantations[J],2019,440.
APA	Lu L.,Wang H.,Chhin S.,Duan A.,Zhang J.,&Zhang X..(2019).A Bayesian Model Averaging approach for modelling tree mortality in relation to site, competition and climatic factors for Chinese fir plantations.Forest Ecology and Management,440.
MLA	Lu L.,et al."A Bayesian Model Averaging approach for modelling tree mortality in relation to site, competition and climatic factors for Chinese fir plantations".Forest Ecology and Management 440(2019).