气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Predicting climate change impacts on the threatened Quercus arbutifolia in montane cloud forests in southern China and Vietnam: Conservation implications

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DOI	10.1016/j.foreco.2019.04.028
	Predicting climate change impacts on the threatened Quercus arbutifolia in montane cloud forests in southern China and Vietnam: Conservation implications
	Song Y.-G.; Petitpierre B.; Deng M.; Wu J.-P.; Kozlowski G.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0378-1127
起始页码	269
结束页码	279
卷号	444
英文摘要	Trees of montane cloud forests (MCFs) often have small and isolated populations and face numerous threats. Due to limited conservation resources, management decisions are often based on scarce biological information. This study investigated the current status of populations of the critically endangered oak species Quercus arbutifolia in southern China, including its distribution, threats, population structure, and area of occupancy (AOO). Additionally, by using ensembles of small models (ESMs), the present and future (2050) distributions of climatically suitable habitats were predicted throughout south China and Vietnam. The present distribution of Q. arbutifolia is extremely fragmented, with only eight confirmed populations and a very small number of individuals (ca. 1200 in total). The results presented here show that Q. arbutifolia populations suffer from habitat destruction and fragmentation, small population size, unbalanced population structure, and pressure from strong competitor species, even though all known occurrences of Q. arbutifolia are in already established nature reserves. Based on the utilized models, the current potential distribution is limited to MCFs, and 17 new areas were predicted to have complete habitats suitability for Q. arbutifolia. However, only a small area in Fujian province will remain suitable for Q. arbutifolia in the future. The current AOO of Q. arbutifolia is very small (8.49 km2), with one-third of all populations predicted to be extinct by 2050, even under the minimum emission assumption. Finally, various actions and conservation measures, such as search for new unknown populations as well as ex situ and in situ conservation, are introduced and discussed in this paper. © 2019 Elsevier B.V.
英文关键词	Climate change; Conservation management; Ensembles of small models (ESMs); Species distribution models (SDMs); Threatened species assessment
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate change; Climate models; Conservation; Ecosystems; Forestry; Information management; Population statistics; Biological information; Conservation implications; Conservation management; Critically endangered; Ensembles of small models (ESMs); Population structures; Species distribution models; Threatened species; Population distribution; angiosperm; climate change; climate effect; cloud forest; conservation management; ecological modeling; endangered species; environmental assessment; habitat fragmentation; montane forest; nature reserve; prediction; China; Conservation; Distribution; Ecosystems; Forestry; Models; Quercus; Vietnam; China; Fujian; Viet Nam; Quercus
来源期刊	Forest Ecology and Management
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/155987
作者单位	Shanghai Chenshan Plant Science Research Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences/Shanghai Chenshan Botanical Garden, 3888 Chenhua Road, Songjiang, Shanghai 201602, China; Department of Biology and Botanic Garden, University of Fribourg, Chemin du Musée 10, Fribourg, CH-1700, Switzerland; Southeast Asia Biodiversity Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Yezin, Nay Pyi Taw 05282, Myanmar; Info Flora, Case Postale 71, Chemin de l'Imperatrice 1, Chambesy-Geneve, CH-1292, Switzerland; Administration of Fujian Meihua Mountain National Nature Reserve, Shanghang, 364201, China; Natural History Museum Fribourg, Chemin du Musée 6, Fribourg, CH-1700, Switzerland
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Song Y.-G.,Petitpierre B.,Deng M.,et al. Predicting climate change impacts on the threatened Quercus arbutifolia in montane cloud forests in southern China and Vietnam: Conservation implications[J],2019,444.
APA	Song Y.-G.,Petitpierre B.,Deng M.,Wu J.-P.,&Kozlowski G..(2019).Predicting climate change impacts on the threatened Quercus arbutifolia in montane cloud forests in southern China and Vietnam: Conservation implications.Forest Ecology and Management,444.
MLA	Song Y.-G.,et al."Predicting climate change impacts on the threatened Quercus arbutifolia in montane cloud forests in southern China and Vietnam: Conservation implications".Forest Ecology and Management 444(2019).