气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Impacts of the 1.5 °C global warming target on future burned area in the Brazilian Cerrado

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DOI	10.1016/j.foreco.2019.05.047
	Impacts of the 1.5 °C global warming target on future burned area in the Brazilian Cerrado
	Silva P.S.; Bastos A.; Libonati R.; Rodrigues J.A.; DaCamara C.C.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0378-1127
起始页码	193
结束页码	203
卷号	446
英文摘要	Worldwide, fires have substantial economic, social and health-related impacts. Brazil is one of the most affected areas in the globe, particularly the Cerrado, a savanna-like biome, whose composition, structure, species abundance and diversity are shaped by recurring fires. The aim is to assess present and future trends of fire danger and burned area (BA), using the Daily Severity Rating (DSR), an extension of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System, and climate outputs from a regional climate model, the RCA4 from the Rossby Centre. To that end, we validated the climate variables simulated by RCA4 and the resulting DSR, both showing consistency with observation-based datasets. We then developed a statistical model of BA using fire season averaged DSR as a predictor, found to explain 71% of the interannual variability of BA from 2003 to 2017. Using the statistical model, we projected future fire danger and BA over Cerrado for IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5. Results show an increase in future BA for all scenarios, with pronounced changes for RCPs 4.5 and 8.5, where BA is expected to increase by 39% and 95% for 2100. In the case of RCP 2.6, the closest scenario to the 1.5 °C target established by the United Nations, results indicate an increase in mean BA up to 22% by 2050, compared to the historical period, followed by a decrease to 11% by 2100. This is especially relevant since RCP 2.6 is the only scenario where such a decrease is projected, highlighting the importance of keeping global mean surface temperature below the 1.5 °C warming target. © 2019 Elsevier B.V.
英文关键词	Brazil; Climate change; Fire danger; Future burned area; Reanalysis; Regional climate model
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate change; Deforestation; Fires; Global warming; Brazil; Burned areas; Fire danger; Reanalysis; Regional climate modeling; Climate models; abundance; annual variation; cerrado; climate modeling; forest fire; global warming; nature-society relations; regional climate; species diversity; surface temperature; Area; Averages; Brazil; Celtis; Decrements; Deforestation; Fires; Increments; Brazil
来源期刊	Forest Ecology and Management
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/155937
作者单位	Instituto Dom Luiz, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, Lisboa, Portugal; Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, Germany; Departamento de Meteorologia, Instituto de Geociências, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Silva P.S.,Bastos A.,Libonati R.,等. Impacts of the 1.5 °C global warming target on future burned area in the Brazilian Cerrado[J],2019,446.
APA	Silva P.S.,Bastos A.,Libonati R.,Rodrigues J.A.,&DaCamara C.C..(2019).Impacts of the 1.5 °C global warming target on future burned area in the Brazilian Cerrado.Forest Ecology and Management,446.
MLA	Silva P.S.,et al."Impacts of the 1.5 °C global warming target on future burned area in the Brazilian Cerrado".Forest Ecology and Management 446(2019).