气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Intercomparison of structural features and performance of Eucalyptus simulation models and their ensemble for yield estimations

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DOI	10.1016/j.foreco.2019.117493
	Intercomparison of structural features and performance of Eucalyptus simulation models and their ensemble for yield estimations
	Elli E.F.; Sentelhas P.C.; de Freitas C.H.; Carneiro R.L.; Alvares C.A.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0378-1127
卷号	450
英文摘要	Eucalyptus process-based models are the most promising tools available for assisting foresters and companies in the pursuit of appropriate planning, long-term management and for assessing the impact of climate variability and change on the forest sector. Reducing errors of Eucalyptus yield simulations is of high importance since it increases the accuracy and credibility of decision making in forest systems. Furthermore, information on ensemble approach for Eucalyptus yield estimations is still scarce. The aims of this study were: to calibrate and evaluate the performance (goodness-of-fit) of the FAO, APSIM and 3PG models for different major Brazilian Eucalyptus clones; to perform an intercomparison of the structural features of Eucalyptus simulation models; and to assess the performance of an ensemble approach of these models. To these ends, experimental yield data from 2012 to 2017 from eight Eucalyptus clones distributed over 23 locations with several and contrasting environmental conditions in Brazil were used. During the evaluation phase, the R2 ranged from 0.81 to 0.88, the modelling efficiency index (E) ranged from 0.75 to 0.81 and the root mean square error (RMSE) ranged from 37.1 to 42.3 m3 ha−1, when the models were individually assessed. The multimodel ensemble approach improved the performance of Eucalyptus yield estimations, with higher R2 (0.89), E (0.85) and lower RMSE (33.1 m3 ha−1), compared to the individual performance of the models. Forest simulation models were able to estimate Eucalyptus yield across a wide range of climates and soil types when properly calibrated. The use of a multimodel ensemble reduced the errors of Eucalyptus yield estimations. © 2019 Elsevier B.V.
英文关键词	3PG; APSIM; FAO – Agroecological zone model; Model calibration; Model evaluation
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate change; Cloning; Decision making; Errors; Forestry; Mean square error; Agro-ecological zones; APSIM; Climate variability and change; Environmental conditions; Individual performance; Model calibration; Model evaluation; Root mean square errors; Climate models; calibration; comparative study; decision making; ensemble forecasting; environmental conditions; evergreen tree; model; model test; simulation; yield; Decision Making; Errors; Eucalyptus; Forestry; Models; Performance; Simulation; Yield; Eucalyptus
来源期刊	Forest Ecology and Management
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/155804
作者单位	Department of Biosystems Engineering, “Luiz de Queiroz” College of Agriculture (ESALQ), University of São Paulo (USP), Piracicaba, SP, Brazil; Forestry Science and Research Institute (IPEF), Piracicaba, SP, Brazil; Suzano SA Company, ItapetiningaSP, Brazil
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Elli E.F.,Sentelhas P.C.,de Freitas C.H.,et al. Intercomparison of structural features and performance of Eucalyptus simulation models and their ensemble for yield estimations[J],2019,450.
APA	Elli E.F.,Sentelhas P.C.,de Freitas C.H.,Carneiro R.L.,&Alvares C.A..(2019).Intercomparison of structural features and performance of Eucalyptus simulation models and their ensemble for yield estimations.Forest Ecology and Management,450.
MLA	Elli E.F.,et al."Intercomparison of structural features and performance of Eucalyptus simulation models and their ensemble for yield estimations".Forest Ecology and Management 450(2019).