气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Comparing strategies for representing individual-tree secondary growth in mixed-species stands in the Acadian Forest region

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DOI	10.1016/j.foreco.2019.117823
	Comparing strategies for representing individual-tree secondary growth in mixed-species stands in the Acadian Forest region
	Kuehne C.; Russell M.B.; Weiskittel A.R.; Kershaw J.A.; Jr.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0378-1127
卷号	459
英文摘要	Tree diameter increment (ΔDBH) is a key component of a forest growth and yield model as predictions are passed to other submodels and tree-level estimates are scaled up to represent plot- and stand-level measures. A common problem faced in mixed-species stands is that ΔDBH needs to be characterized for numerous species, each with varying growth rates, shade tolerances, and competitive abilities. In addition, a variety of approaches have been used to model ΔDBH with unclear implications for general suitability for each species and overall prediction accuracy. This analysis used remeasurement data comprising 2,656,354 observations from 16,204 permanent sample plots across the Acadian Forest region of North America to develop and compare alternative approaches to estimating ΔDBH as well as stem basal area increment (ΔBA). Sixty-one species or genera including several with N < 10 were represented where observed mean growth rates ranged from 0 to 1.08 cm yr−1, depending on species. Analyzing several modeling approaches to project DBH of the 15 most abundant species using various evaluation statistics to quantify prediction performance, this study showed that i) modeling ΔDBH was generally superior compared to approaches that estimated ΔBA, ii) a two-stage modeling procedure predicting potential growth and a corresponding multiplicative modifier to derive ultimate increment was mostly inferior compared to strategies predicting realized ΔDBH or ΔBA in a unified model form, and iii) species-specific, realized increment models exhibited similar behavior and accuracy compared to models fitted with modeling species as random effect. These key findings became even more evident when projection lengths increased (≥ 30 years). Our study thus showed the efficiency and flexibility of diameter predictions by including tree species as a random effect to account for ΔDBH differences of trees in mixed-species stands, including infrequent species. However, curves for rare species derived with the mixed effects modeling approach still need to be evaluated for biological plausibility as unbalanced or biased data can lead to uncharacteristic and potentially illogical behavior. Overall, the study highlights the challenges of accurately predicting ΔDBH across a range of species and conditions, but offers a general framework for future analyses in mixed species forests. © 2019 Elsevier B.V.
英文关键词	Basal area increment; Forest growth and yield modeling; Mixed effect modeling; Mixed species forests; Realized diameter increment; Stem diameter growth; Two-stage potential-modifier approach
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Forecasting; Random processes; Basal area increment; Diameter increment; Forest growth and yield; Mixed-effect models; Mixed-species forests; Stem diameter growth; Two-stage potential-modifier approach; Forestry; basal area; diameter; growth rate; mixed forest; rare species; stand structure; stem; tree; Behavior; Data; Diameter; Forecasts; Forestry; Random Processes; Secondary Growth; Trees; North America
来源期刊	Forest Ecology and Management
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/155502
作者单位	Center for Research on Sustainable Forests, University of Maine, Orono, ME 04469, United States; Department of Forest Resources, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN 55108, United States; Faculty of Forestry and Environmental Management, University of New Brunswick, Fredericton, NB E3B 5A3, Canada
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Kuehne C.,Russell M.B.,Weiskittel A.R.,et al. Comparing strategies for representing individual-tree secondary growth in mixed-species stands in the Acadian Forest region[J],2020,459.
APA	Kuehne C.,Russell M.B.,Weiskittel A.R.,Kershaw J.A.,&Jr..(2020).Comparing strategies for representing individual-tree secondary growth in mixed-species stands in the Acadian Forest region.Forest Ecology and Management,459.
MLA	Kuehne C.,et al."Comparing strategies for representing individual-tree secondary growth in mixed-species stands in the Acadian Forest region".Forest Ecology and Management 459(2020).