气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Risk assessment of forest disturbance by typhoons with heavy precipitation in northern Japan

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DOI	10.1016/j.foreco.2020.118521
	Risk assessment of forest disturbance by typhoons with heavy precipitation in northern Japan
	Morimoto J.; Aiba M.; Furukawa F.; Mishima Y.; Yoshimura N.; Nayak S.; Takemi T.; Chihiro H.; Matsui T.; Nakamura F.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0378-1127
卷号	479
英文摘要	Under future climate regimes, the risk of typhoons accompanied by heavy rains is expected to increase. Although the risk of disturbance to forest stands by strong winds has long been of interest, we have little knowledge of how the process is mediated by storms and precipitation. Using machine learning, we assess the disturbance risk to cool-temperate forests by typhoons that landed in northern Japan in late August 2016 to determine the features of damage caused by typhoons accompanied by heavy precipitation, discuss how the process is mediated by precipitation as inferred from the modelling results, and delineate the effective solutions for forest management to decrease the future risk in silviculture. In the results, we confirmed two types of behaviours in the model: one represents the same process as that of forest disturbance by strong wind, which has been widely studied, and another represents a unique process mediated by storms and precipitation that has not been previously investigated. Specifically, the ridges that received strong wind from the front side had the highest risk of disturbance. Precipitation increased the probability of disturbance in forest stands, and its effect was dependent on the dominant species composition. Our hypothesis regarding treefall mediated by storms and precipitation is that rainwater flows into the gaps around the tree root systems during sway and the introduction of rainwater below the root-soil plate decreases the root anchorage. The species-specific vulnerability to rainfall may depend on the volume of lateral roots. Modelling the disturbance risk helped us to examine the kinds of factors that were related to exposure and vulnerability that should be managed to effectively decrease the risk of disturbance by typhoons during future uncontrollable hazards. It is recommended to avoid silviculture on the ridges of plateaus considering the high risk estimated in this area. In addition, species with dense lateral roots would be suitable for planting because they may have high resistance to typhoons with heavy precipitation. © 2020 Elsevier B.V.
英文关键词	Climate change; Forest structure; Risk assessment; Topography; Total precipitation; Windthrow
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Forestry; Hurricanes; Rain; Risk perception; Storms; Cool temperate forests; Dominant species; Effective solution; Forest disturbances; Heavy precipitation; High resistance; Species specifics; Tree root systems; Risk assessment; climate change; disturbance; forest ecosystem; forest management; precipitation (climatology); rainfall; rainwater; risk assessment; silviculture; spatiotemporal analysis; temperate forest; treefall; typhoon; vulnerability; Forestry; Japan; Precipitation; Processes; Rain; Risk Assessment; Roots; Vulnerability; Japan
来源期刊	Forest Ecology and Management
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/154934
作者单位	Graduate School of Agriculture, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Hokkaido 060-8589, Japan; Research Institute for Humanity and Nature, Kyoto, 603-8047, Japan; Faculty of Geo-Environmental Science, Rissho University, Kumagaya, Saitama 360-0194, Japan; Department of Environmental and Symbiotic Science, Rakuno Gakuen University, Ebetsu, 069-8501, Japan; Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Gokasho, Uji, Kyoto 611-0011, Japan; Division of Sustainable Energy and Environmental Engineering, Graduate School of Engineering, Osaka University, Suita, Osaka 565-0871, Japan
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Morimoto J.,Aiba M.,Furukawa F.,et al. Risk assessment of forest disturbance by typhoons with heavy precipitation in northern Japan[J],2021,479.
APA	Morimoto J..,Aiba M..,Furukawa F..,Mishima Y..,Yoshimura N..,...&Nakamura F..(2021).Risk assessment of forest disturbance by typhoons with heavy precipitation in northern Japan.Forest Ecology and Management,479.
MLA	Morimoto J.,et al."Risk assessment of forest disturbance by typhoons with heavy precipitation in northern Japan".Forest Ecology and Management 479(2021).