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DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab4a3a
	Empirically based spatial projections of US population age structure consistent with the shared socioeconomic pathways
	Striessnig E.; Gao J.; O'Neill B.C.; Jiang L.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	17489318
卷号	14 期号:11
英文摘要	Spatially-explicit population projections by age are increasingly needed for understanding bilateral human-environment interactions. Conventional demographic methods for projecting age structure experience substantial challenges at small spatial scales. In search of a potentially better-performing alternative, we develop an empirically based spatial model of population age structure and test its application in projecting US population age structure over the 21st century under various socioeconomic scenarios (SSPs). The model draws on 40 years of historical data explaining changes in spatial age distribution at the county level. It demonstrates that a very good model fit is achievable even with parsimonious data input, and distinguishes itself from existing methods as a promising approach to spatial age structure modeling at the global level where data availability is often limited. Results suggest that wide variations in the spatial pattern of county-level age structure are plausible, with the possibility of substantial aging clustered in particular parts of the country. Aging is experienced most prominently in thinly populated counties in the Midwest and the Rocky Mountains, while cities and surrounding counties, particularly in California, as well as the southern parts of New England and the Mid-Atlantic region, maintain a younger population age structure with a lower proportion in the most vulnerable 70+ age group. The urban concentration of younger people, as well as the absolute number of vulnerable elderly people can vary strongly by SSP. © 2019 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	age structure; population projections; shared socioeconomic pathways; spatial population
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Environmental engineering; Research; Age structures; Data availability; Human-environment interaction; population projections; shared socioeconomic pathways; Spatial modeling; spatial population; Spatially explicit; Population dynamics; age structure; demography; empirical analysis; population distribution; socioeconomic conditions; spatial variation; twenty first century; Rocky Mountains; United States
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/154770
作者单位	Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA VID/ÖAW WU), Austria; University of Delaware, United States; University of Denver, United States; Population Council, United States; Asian Demographic Research Institute (ADRI), China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Striessnig E.,Gao J.,O'Neill B.C.,et al. Empirically based spatial projections of US population age structure consistent with the shared socioeconomic pathways[J],2019,14(11).
APA	Striessnig E.,Gao J.,O'Neill B.C.,&Jiang L..(2019).Empirically based spatial projections of US population age structure consistent with the shared socioeconomic pathways.Environmental Research Letters,14(11).
MLA	Striessnig E.,et al."Empirically based spatial projections of US population age structure consistent with the shared socioeconomic pathways".Environmental Research Letters 14.11(2019).