气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Cold waves are getting milder in the northern midlatitudes

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DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab4867
	Cold waves are getting milder in the northern midlatitudes
	Van Oldenborgh G.J.; Mitchell-Larson E.; Vecchi G.A.; De Vries H.; Vautard R.; Otto F.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	17489318
卷号	14 期号:11
英文摘要	The strong two-day cold wave in the midwestern United States in January 2019 again ignited the discussion as to whether cold waves are getting more severe or not as a result of Arctic amplification due to climate change. Assessing the evolution of cold waves in the northern hemisphere midlatitudes in the observations has been difficult because the variability of cold waves is large compared to anthropogenic warming. In order to detect changes in cold spells, two complementary ways to optimise the signal-to-noise ratio are employed: Multi-decadal series at individual stations, and for shorter time periods by using spatially aggregated measures. Global warming is now strong enough to make trends clear at individual stations when considering long enough (>50 yr) records of daily minimum and maximum temperature. Calculating the land area that has temperatures below the 1-in-10 year return value (defined over 1951-1980) enables us to investigate trends over a shorter time horizon. The long-term station data have strong decreases everywhere in the lowest minimum temperature. Warming trends in the lowest maximum temperature are smaller over most of the Northern Hemisphere, with dataset-dependent indications of possible negative trends in parts of the United States and Mexico. Considering the area experiencing cold waves over the last decades, the most notable feature is a sharp decline of this area since the 1980s. The natural variability is still so large that it is possible to arbitrarily select starting dates after the decline for which the trend is slightly positive in smaller regions like North America or Europe. However, these values are within uncertainties compatible with a steady decline and have differing starting dates in North America and Europe. An analysis of the entire northern midlatitudes confirms the steady decrease in severity and frequency of cold waves over the last decades in the observations. © 2019 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	cold extremes; cold outbreaks; Europe; global warming; North America; northern midlatitudes
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Global warming; cold extremes; cold outbreaks; Europe; Midlatitudes; North America; Signal to noise ratio; climate change; cold wave; data set; global warming; midlatitude environment; Northern Hemisphere; signal-to-noise ratio; warming; Europe; Mexico [North America]; United States
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/154768
作者单位	Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), RandD Weather and Climate Models, De Bilt, Netherlands; School of Geography and the Environment and Department of Physics, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; Geosciences Department and Princeton Environmental Institute, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States; IPSL, LSCE, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Van Oldenborgh G.J.,Mitchell-Larson E.,Vecchi G.A.,et al. Cold waves are getting milder in the northern midlatitudes[J],2019,14(11).
APA	Van Oldenborgh G.J.,Mitchell-Larson E.,Vecchi G.A.,De Vries H.,Vautard R.,&Otto F..(2019).Cold waves are getting milder in the northern midlatitudes.Environmental Research Letters,14(11).
MLA	Van Oldenborgh G.J.,et al."Cold waves are getting milder in the northern midlatitudes".Environmental Research Letters 14.11(2019).