气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): A substantial rise in the area and population affected by dryness in South Asia under 1.5 °c, 2.0 °c and 2.5 °c warmer worlds

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DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab4862
	A substantial rise in the area and population affected by dryness in South Asia under 1.5 °c, 2.0 °c and 2.5 °c warmer worlds
	Aadhar S.; Mishra V.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	17489318
卷号	14 期号:11
英文摘要	Millions of people in South Asia face water scarcity every year. Previous studies based on the multi-model ensemble mean reported a decline in dryness (the ratio of potential evapotranspiration and precipitation) in South Asia under the warming climate. However, using observations and simulations from skilful climate models (BEST-GCMs) that simulate the critical monsoon features and show less bias to simulate observed climate, we show that dryness has significantly increased over the Gangetic Plain and parts of Pakistan during 1951-2016. Moreover, a rise in global mean temperature of 1.5 °C from the pre-industrial level will result in an increased dryness over half of South Asia affecting more than 790(±336) million people. Population affected by dryness is projected to 890 (±485) and 1960 (±1033) million under 2.0° and 2.5° warming worlds, respectively. Previously reported reduced aridity under the warming climate based on multi-model ensemble is mainly due to the GCMs that have less skill to simulate monsoon features. The GCMs with less skill project a higher increase (∼25%) in the monsoon season precipitation, which is largely due to their higher sensitivity of convective precipitation to warming. We show that the risk of water scarcity and dryness in South Asia under warming climate is higher than previously reported. © 2019 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	aridity; climate change; CMIP5; CRU; potential evapotranspiration; South Asia
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Atmospheric thermodynamics; Climate change; Evapotranspiration; Forestry; aridity; CMIP5; Convective precipitation; Global-mean temperature; Multi-model ensemble; Potential evapotranspiration; Pre-industrial levels; South Asia; Climate models; aridity; climate change; climate modeling; CMIP; convective system; environmental impact; global warming; monsoon; potential evapotranspiration; resource scarcity; simulation; Gangetic Plain; Pakistan
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/154745
作者单位	Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology (IIT), Gandhinagar, India
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Aadhar S.,Mishra V.. A substantial rise in the area and population affected by dryness in South Asia under 1.5 °c, 2.0 °c and 2.5 °c warmer worlds[J],2019,14(11).
APA	Aadhar S.,&Mishra V..(2019).A substantial rise in the area and population affected by dryness in South Asia under 1.5 °c, 2.0 °c and 2.5 °c warmer worlds.Environmental Research Letters,14(11).
MLA	Aadhar S.,et al."A substantial rise in the area and population affected by dryness in South Asia under 1.5 °c, 2.0 °c and 2.5 °c warmer worlds".Environmental Research Letters 14.11(2019).