气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Climate shocks, food price stability and international trade: Evidence from 76 maize markets in 27 net-importing countries

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DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/aaf07f
	Climate shocks, food price stability and international trade: Evidence from 76 maize markets in 27 net-importing countries
	Chen B.; Villoria N.B.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	17489318
卷号	14 期号:1
英文摘要	Do food imports increase the variability of domestic food prices? The answer to this question depends on whether foreign production is more volatile than domestic production. If imports are likely to destabilize domestic prices, storing crops for future consumption may prove an appealing strategy to cope with the adverse supply effects of a more unstable climate. Unfortunately, public storage has proven to be unsustainable due to the high costs of carrying crop inventories over time and the inability of policy planners to correctly forecast changes in domestic supply. Therefore, understanding the roles of imports and stocks on domestic food price instability is important as domestic shortfalls in food production are likely to become more frequent as the world's climate becomes warmer. Using maize prices observed in 76 maize markets of 27 maize net importers across Africa, Asia and Latin America during 2000-2015, we find that, on average, a 1% increase in the ratio of imports to total consumption is correlated with a 0.29% reduction of the intra-annual coefficient of variation of maize prices; likewise a 1% increase in the amount of maize available in stocks at the beginning of the season is correlated with a 0.22% reduction in the said coefficient. We also find that climate-induced supply shocks toward mid-century may increase maize price variability in the focus countries by around 10%; these increases could be offset with similar increases in the ratio of imports to total consumption or in the stock-to-use ratio at the beginning of the crop marketing year. The fact that both imports and stocks help to stabilize domestic prices suggests that their uses should hinge on a careful cost-benefit analysis, including the risk of facing world production more variable than domestic production and the costs of carrying maize inventories over time. © 2019 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	climate change; food imports; food price stability; maize markets; price volatility
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate change; Cost benefit analysis; Crops; International trade; Risk assessment; Coefficient of variation; Domestic prices; Domestic production; Domestic supplies; Food prices; Future consumption; Price variability; Price volatility; Costs; climate effect; cost-benefit analysis; food consumption; food market; food production; import; international trade; maize; marketing; price dynamics; Africa; Asia; Latin America; Zea mays
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/154721
作者单位	Department of Agricultural Economics, Kansas State University, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Chen B.,Villoria N.B.. Climate shocks, food price stability and international trade: Evidence from 76 maize markets in 27 net-importing countries[J],2019,14(1).
APA	Chen B.,&Villoria N.B..(2019).Climate shocks, food price stability and international trade: Evidence from 76 maize markets in 27 net-importing countries.Environmental Research Letters,14(1).
MLA	Chen B.,et al."Climate shocks, food price stability and international trade: Evidence from 76 maize markets in 27 net-importing countries".Environmental Research Letters 14.1(2019).