气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Skilful seasonal prediction of winter gas demand

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DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/aaf338
	Skilful seasonal prediction of winter gas demand
	Thornton H.E.; Scaife A.A.; Hoskins B.J.; Brayshaw D.J.; Smith D.M.; Dunstone N.; Stringer N.; Bett P.E.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	17489318
卷号	14 期号:2
英文摘要	In Britain, residential properties are predominantly heated using gas central heating systems. Ensuring a reliable supply of gas is therefore vital in protecting vulnerable sections of society from the adverse effects of cold weather. Ahead of the winter, the grid operator makes a prediction of gas demand to better anticipate possible conditions. Seasonal weather forecasts are not currently used to inform this demand prediction. Here we assess whether seasonal weather forecasts can skilfully predict the weather-driven component of both winter mean gas demand and the number of extreme gas demand days over the winter period. We find that both the mean and the number of extreme days are predicted with some skill from early November using seasonal forecasts of the large-scale atmospheric circulation (r > 0.5). Although temperature is most strongly correlated with gas demand, the more skilful prediction of the atmospheric circulation means it is a better predictor of demand. If seasonal weather forecasts are incorporated into pre-winter gas demand planning, they could help improve the security of gas supplies and reduce the impacts associated with extreme demand events. © 2019 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	atmospheric circulation; energy; gas demand; seasonal weather forecasting; UK; winter
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climatology; Gases; Atmospheric circulation; Demand prediction; energy; Gas central heating systems; Gas demands; Seasonal forecasts; Seasonal prediction; winter; Weather forecasting; atmospheric circulation; demand analysis; energy planning; gas flow; seasonality; weather forecasting; winter; United Kingdom
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/154701
作者单位	Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom; College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, United Kingdom; Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, United Kingdom; Imperial College, London, United Kingdom; National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Thornton H.E.,Scaife A.A.,Hoskins B.J.,et al. Skilful seasonal prediction of winter gas demand[J],2019,14(2).
APA	Thornton H.E..,Scaife A.A..,Hoskins B.J..,Brayshaw D.J..,Smith D.M..,...&Bett P.E..(2019).Skilful seasonal prediction of winter gas demand.Environmental Research Letters,14(2).
MLA	Thornton H.E.,et al."Skilful seasonal prediction of winter gas demand".Environmental Research Letters 14.2(2019).