气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Climate and carbon budget implications of linked future changes in CO2 and non-CO2 forcing

CCPortal

DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab08a9
	Climate and carbon budget implications of linked future changes in CO2 and non-CO2 forcing
	Feijoo F.; Mignone B.K.; Kheshgi H.S.; Hartin C.; McJeon H.; Edmonds J.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	17489318
卷号	14 期号:4
英文摘要	The approximate proportional relationship between cumulative carbon emissions and instantaneous global temperature rise (the carbon budget approximation) has proven to be a useful concept to translate policy-relevant temperature objectives into CO2 emissions pathways. However, when non-CO2 forcing is changing along with CO2 forcing, errors in the approximation increases. Using the GCAM model to produce an ensemble of ∼3000 scenarios, we show that linked changes in CO2 forcing, aerosol forcing, and non-CO2 greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing lead to an increase in total non-CO2 forcing over the 21st century across mitigation scenarios. This increase causes the relationship between instantaneous temperature and cumulative CO2 emissions to become more complex than the proportional approximation often assumed, particularly for low temperature objectives such as 1.5 °C. The same linked changes in emissions also contribute to a near-term increase in aerosol forcing that effectively places a limit on how low peak temperature could be constrained through GHG mitigation alone. In particular, we find that 23% of scenarios that include CCS (but only 1% of scenarios that do not include CCS) achieve a temperature objective of 1.5 °C without temperature overshoot. © US Government.
英文关键词	carbon budget; cumulative carbon emissions; global temperature; non-CO2; radiative forcing
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Aerosols; Atmospheric radiation; Budget control; Carbon; Carbon capture; Greenhouse gases; Temperature; Carbon budgets; Carbon emissions; Global temperatures; non-CO2; Radiative forcings; Carbon dioxide; aerosol; air temperature; carbon budget; carbon emission; climate change; climate forcing; ensemble forecasting; greenhouse gas; radiative forcing
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/154646
作者单位	School of Industrial Engineering, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Valparaíso, Chile; Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, MD 20740, United States; ExxonMobil Research and Engineering Company, Annandale, NJ 08801, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Feijoo F.,Mignone B.K.,Kheshgi H.S.,et al. Climate and carbon budget implications of linked future changes in CO2 and non-CO2 forcing[J],2019,14(4).
APA	Feijoo F.,Mignone B.K.,Kheshgi H.S.,Hartin C.,McJeon H.,&Edmonds J..(2019).Climate and carbon budget implications of linked future changes in CO2 and non-CO2 forcing.Environmental Research Letters,14(4).
MLA	Feijoo F.,et al."Climate and carbon budget implications of linked future changes in CO2 and non-CO2 forcing".Environmental Research Letters 14.4(2019).