气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Advancing disaster policies by integrating dynamic adaptive behaviour in risk assessments using an agent-based modelling approach

CCPortal

DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab0770
	Advancing disaster policies by integrating dynamic adaptive behaviour in risk assessments using an agent-based modelling approach
	Haer T.; Botzen W.J.W.; Aerts J.C.J.H.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	17489318
卷号	14 期号:4
英文摘要	Recent floods in the United States and Asia again highlighted their devastating effects, and without investments in adaptation, the future impact of floods will continue to increase. Key to making accurate flood-risk projections are assessments of how disaster-risk reduction (DRR) measures reduce risk and how much risk remains after adaptation. Current flood-risk-assessment models are ill-equipped to address this, as they assume a static adaptation path, implying that vulnerability will remain constant. We present a multi-disciplinary approach that integrates different types of adaptive behaviour of governments (proactive and reactive) and households (rational and boundedly rational) in a continental-scale risk-assessment framework for river flooding in the European Union. Our methodology demonstrates how flood risk and adaptation might develop, indicates how DRR policies can steer decisions towards optimal behaviour, and indicates how much residual risk remains that has to be covered by risk-transfer mechanisms. We find that the increase in flood risk due to climate change may be largely offset by adaptation decisions. Moreover, we illustrate that adaptation by households may be more influential for risk reduction than government protection in the short term. The results highlight the importance of integrating behavioural methods from social sciences with quantitative models from the natural sciences, as advocated by both fields. © 2019 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	adaptation; agent-based models; flood risk
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Autonomous agents; Climate change; Computational methods; Disasters; Risk assessment; Risk management; Risk perception; Simulation platform; adaptation; Agent-based model; Disaster risk reductions; Flood risk assessments; Flood risks; Multi-disciplinary approach; Risk assessment framework; Risk-transfer mechanisms; Floods; adaptive management; climate change; disaster management; environmental risk; flood; flooding; policy approach; risk assessment; vulnerability; Asia; United States
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/154632
作者单位	Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, 1081HV, Netherlands; Deltares, Delft, Netherlands; Utrecht University School of Economics (U.S.E.), Utrecht University, Utrecht, 3584EC, Netherlands; Risk Management and Decision Processes Center, Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Haer T.,Botzen W.J.W.,Aerts J.C.J.H.. Advancing disaster policies by integrating dynamic adaptive behaviour in risk assessments using an agent-based modelling approach[J],2019,14(4).
APA	Haer T.,Botzen W.J.W.,&Aerts J.C.J.H..(2019).Advancing disaster policies by integrating dynamic adaptive behaviour in risk assessments using an agent-based modelling approach.Environmental Research Letters,14(4).
MLA	Haer T.,et al."Advancing disaster policies by integrating dynamic adaptive behaviour in risk assessments using an agent-based modelling approach".Environmental Research Letters 14.4(2019).