气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Stochastically modeling the projected impacts of climate change on rainfed and irrigated US crop yields

CCPortal

DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab25a1
	Stochastically modeling the projected impacts of climate change on rainfed and irrigated US crop yields
	Zhu X.; Troy T.J.; Devineni N.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	17489318
卷号	14 期号:7
英文摘要	Food demands are rising due to an increasing population with changing food preferences, placing pressure on agricultural production. Additionally, climate extremes have recently highlighted the vulnerability of the agricultural system to climate variability. This study seeks to fill two important gaps in current knowledge: how irrigation impacts the large-scale response of crops to varying climate conditions and how we can explicitly account for uncertainty in yield response to climate. To address these, we developed a statistical model to quantitatively estimate historical and future impacts of climate change and irrigation on US county-level crop yields with uncertainty explicitly treated. Historical climate and crop yield data for 1970-2009 were used over different growing regions to fit the model, and five CMIP5 climate projections were applied to simulate future crop yield response to climate. Maize and spring wheat yields are projected to experience decreasing trends with all models in agreement. Winter wheat yields in the Northwest will see an increasing trend. Results for soybean and winter wheat in the South are more complicated, as irrigation can change the trend in projected yields. The comparison between projected crop yield time series for rainfed and irrigated cases indicates that irrigation can buffer against climate variability that could lead to negative yield anomalies. Through trend analysis of the predictors, the trend in crop yield is mainly driven by projected trends in temperature-related indices, and county-level trend analysis shows regional differences are negligible. This framework provides estimates of the impact of climate and irrigation on US crop yields for the 21st century that account for the full uncertainty of climate variables and the range of crop response. The results of this study can contribute to decision making about crop choice and water use in an uncertain future climate. © 2019 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	Climate and irrigation impacts; crop yield modeling; statistical modeling
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate models; Crops; Decision making; Irrigation; Uncertainty analysis; Agricultural productions; Agricultural system; Climate and irrigation impacts; Climate variability; Crop yield; Regional differences; Statistical modeling; Winter wheat yields; Climate change; Glycine max; Triticum aestivum; Zea mays
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/154500
作者单位	Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Lehigh University, Bethlehem, PA 18015, United States; Department of Civil Engineering, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC 5C2, Canada; Department of Civil Engineering, City University of New York, City College, NY 10031, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhu X.,Troy T.J.,Devineni N.. Stochastically modeling the projected impacts of climate change on rainfed and irrigated US crop yields[J],2019,14(7).
APA	Zhu X.,Troy T.J.,&Devineni N..(2019).Stochastically modeling the projected impacts of climate change on rainfed and irrigated US crop yields.Environmental Research Letters,14(7).
MLA	Zhu X.,et al."Stochastically modeling the projected impacts of climate change on rainfed and irrigated US crop yields".Environmental Research Letters 14.7(2019).