气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Detection of fossil fuel emission trends in the presence of natural carbon cycle variability

CCPortal

DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab2dd7
	Detection of fossil fuel emission trends in the presence of natural carbon cycle variability
	Yin Y.; Bowman K.; Bloom A.A.; Worden J.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	17489318
卷号	14 期号:8
英文摘要	Atmospheric CO2 observations have the potential to monitor regional fossil fuel emission (FFCO2) changes to support carbon mitigation efforts such as the Paris Accord, but they must contend with the confounding impacts of the natural carbon cycle. Here, we quantify trend detection time and magnitude in gridded total CO2 fluxes - the sum of FFCO2 and natural carbon fluxes - under an idealized assumption that monthly total CO2 fluxes can be perfectly resolved at a 2 2 resolution. Using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) 'business-as-usual' emission scenarios to represent FFCO2 and simulated net biome exchange (NBE) to represent natural carbon fluxes, we find that trend detection time for the total CO2 fluxes at such a resolution has a median of 10 years across the globe, with significant spatial variability depending on FFCO2 magnitude and NBE variability. Differences between trends in the total CO2 fluxes and the underlying FFCO2 component highlight the role of natural carbon cycle variability in modulating regional detection of FFCO2 emission trends using CO2 observations alone, particularly in the tropics and subtropics where mega-cities with large populations are developing rapidly. Using CO2 estimates alone at such a spatiotemporal resolution can only quantify fossil fuel trends in a few places - mostly limited to arid regions. For instance, in the Middle East, FFCO2 can explain more than 75% of the total CO2 trends in ∼70% of the grids, but only ∼20% of grids in China can meet such criteria. Only a third of the 25 megacities we analyze here show total CO2 trends that are primarily explained (>75%) by FFCO2. Our analysis provides a theoretical baseline at a global scale for the design of regional FFCO2 monitoring networks and underscores the importance of estimating biospheric interannual variability to improve the accuracy of FFCO2 trend monitoring. We envision that this can be achieved with a fully integrated carbon cycle assimilation system with explicit constraints on FFCO2 and NBE, respectively. © 2019 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	carbon cycle; CO2monitor; fossil fuel emissions; trend detection
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Carbon; Carbon dioxide; Tropics; Assimilation system; Carbon cycles; CO2monitor; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project; Fossil fuel emissions; Interannual variability; Spatio-temporal resolution; Trend detection; Fossil fuels; carbon cycle; carbon emission; carbon flux; CMIP; detection method; fossil fuel; China; Middle East
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/154422
作者单位	Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, United States; Division of Geological and Planetary Sciences, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, United States; Joint Institute for Regional Earth System Science and Engineering, University of California, Los Angeles, CA, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Yin Y.,Bowman K.,Bloom A.A.,et al. Detection of fossil fuel emission trends in the presence of natural carbon cycle variability[J],2019,14(8).
APA	Yin Y.,Bowman K.,Bloom A.A.,&Worden J..(2019).Detection of fossil fuel emission trends in the presence of natural carbon cycle variability.Environmental Research Letters,14(8).
MLA	Yin Y.,et al."Detection of fossil fuel emission trends in the presence of natural carbon cycle variability".Environmental Research Letters 14.8(2019).