气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Probabilistic global maps of crop-specific areas from 1961 to 2014

CCPortal

DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab3b93
	Probabilistic global maps of crop-specific areas from 1961 to 2014
	Jackson N.D.; Konar M.; Debaere P.; Estes L.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	17489318
卷号	14 期号:9
英文摘要	Agriculture has substantial socioeconomic and environmental impacts that vary between crops. However, information on how the spatial distribution of specific crops has changed over time across the globe is relatively sparse. We introduce the Probabilistic Cropland Allocation Model (PCAM), a novel algorithm to estimate where specific crops have likely been grown over time. Specifically, PCAM downscales annual and national-scale data on the crop-specific area harvested of 17 major crops to a global 0.5-degree grid from 1961 to 2014. To do this, pixels are assigned into probability clusters based upon crop-specific pixel suitability (based on mean climate and soil characteristics) and gridded historical agricultural areas. PCAM maps compare relatively well with an existing gridded dataset of crop-specific areas circa 2000 (simple matching coefficient value >0.8 for all crops). PCAM estimates compare less well with time series county-level agricultural census data for the United States. Importantly, deviations between census data and PCAM benchmark estimates (driven by soil and climate suitability) can be used to infer the importance of other factors of agricultural production (e.g. labor, agricultural policy, extreme climate) in future work. Our results provide new insights into the likely changes in the spatial distribution of major crops over the past half-century. © 2019 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Environmental impact; Pixels; Population statistics; Spatial distribution; Surveys; Agricultural areas; Agricultural policies; Agricultural productions; Allocation model; Climate suitability; Extreme climates; Matching coefficients; Soil characteristics; Crops; agricultural production; census; crop plant; spatial distribution; spatiotemporal analysis; United States
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/154375
作者单位	Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL, United States; Darden School of Business, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA22903, United States; Graduate School of Geography, Clark University WorcesterMA 01610, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Jackson N.D.,Konar M.,Debaere P.,et al. Probabilistic global maps of crop-specific areas from 1961 to 2014[J],2019,14(9).
APA	Jackson N.D.,Konar M.,Debaere P.,&Estes L..(2019).Probabilistic global maps of crop-specific areas from 1961 to 2014.Environmental Research Letters,14(9).
MLA	Jackson N.D.,et al."Probabilistic global maps of crop-specific areas from 1961 to 2014".Environmental Research Letters 14.9(2019).