气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Water shortage risks from perennial crop expansion in California's Central Valley

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DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab4035
	Water shortage risks from perennial crop expansion in California's Central Valley
	Mall N.K.; Herman J.D.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	17489318
卷号	14 期号:10
英文摘要	California's Central Valley is one of the world's most productive agricultural regions. Its high-value fruit, vegetable, and nut crops rely on surface water imports from a vast network of reservoirs and canals as well as groundwater, which has been substantially overdrafted to support irrigation. The region has undergone a shift to perennial (tree and vine) crops in recent decades, which has increased water demand amid a series of severe droughts and emerging regulations on groundwater pumping. This study quantifies the expansion of perennial crops in the Tulare Lake Basin, the southern region of the Central Valley with limited natural water availability. A gridded crop type dataset is compiled on a 1 mi2 spatial resolution from a historical database of pesticide permits over the period 1974-2016 and validated against aggregated county-level data. This spatial dataset is then analyzed by irrigation district, the primary spatial scale at which surface water supplies are determined, to identify trends in planting decisions and agricultural water demand over time. Perennial crop acreage has nearly tripled over this period, and currently accounts for roughly 60% of planted area and 80% of annual revenue. These trends show little relationship with water availability and have been driven primarily by market demand. From this data, we focus on the increasing minimum irrigation needs each year to sustain perennial crops. Results indicate that under a range of plausible future regulations on groundwater pumping ranging from 10% to 50%, water supplies may fail to consistently meet demands, increasing losses by up to 30% of annual revenues. More broadly, the datasets developed in this work will support the development of dynamic models of the integrated water-agriculture system under uncertain climate and regulatory changes to understand the combined impacts of water supply shortages and intensifying irrigation demand. © 2019 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	agricultural water demand; drought risk; water resources management
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Agricultural robots; Climate models; Crops; Expansion; Groundwater; Irrigation; Irrigation canals; Landforms; Surface waters; Water supply; Agricultural water; Agriculture systems; Groundwater pumping; Historical database; Irrigation districts; Support irrigations; Water shortage risks; Water supply shortages; Reservoirs (water); crop plant; groundwater; irrigation system; perennial plant; surface water; water availability; water demand; water supply; California; Central Valley [California]; Tulare Lake; United States
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/154372
作者单位	Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Davis, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Mall N.K.,Herman J.D.. Water shortage risks from perennial crop expansion in California's Central Valley[J],2019,14(10).
APA	Mall N.K.,&Herman J.D..(2019).Water shortage risks from perennial crop expansion in California's Central Valley.Environmental Research Letters,14(10).
MLA	Mall N.K.,et al."Water shortage risks from perennial crop expansion in California's Central Valley".Environmental Research Letters 14.10(2019).