气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Climate change impacts the epidemic of dysentery: Determining climate risk window, modeling and projection

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DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab424f
	Climate change impacts the epidemic of dysentery: Determining climate risk window, modeling and projection
	Li C.; Wu X.; Ji D.; Liu J.; Yin J.; Guo Z.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	17489318
卷号	14 期号:10
英文摘要	Dysentery, an acute infectious disease still prevalent in many parts of the world, especially in developing counties, is caused by a group of bacteria known as Shigella. Because of the sensitivity of dysentery to climate change, the relationship between dysentery incidence and climate factors has become a growing research interest. Previous studies have mainly focused on identifying key climate factors and examining the relationship between dysentery incidence and climate change. However, there has been little research on modeling and projecting the occurrence of dysentery based on key climate factors. Here we selected Binyang County in China, a subtropical monsoon climate region where epidemics are typical, as the study area. We used heat maps to extract climate risk windows (with minimum temperatures of 24 C-26 C, precipitation amounts of 160-380 mm, and relative humidities of 69%-85%) for dysentery transmission. We then developed a climate-dysentery model and validated its reliability. Finally, based on climate risk windows and the developed model, three earth system models (BNU-ESM, IPSL-CM5A-MR, and MIROC-ESM) were used to project future occurrence periods and incidence of dysentery under future climate condition. The projected results showed that May to August were high-incidence periods, and the occurrence of dysentery exhibited an upward trend in the future. Accordingly, we provided two practical recommendations for defeating dysentery: seasonal control in the study area, and advocacy of prevention in potentially pandemic regions. This study hopes to provide a theoretical basis for developing a dysentery warning system from the perspective of climate change. © 2019 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	climate factors; climate risk window; dysentery; model; projection
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate models; Earth (planet); Climate change impact; Developed model; Earth system model; Infectious disease; Minimum temperatures; Practical recommendation; Research interests; Subtropical monsoon climate; Climate change; bacterial disease; climate change; climate conditions; climate effect; climate modeling; disease incidence; disease prevalence; dysentery; environmental risk; epidemic; infectious disease; modeling; China; Shigella
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/154370
作者单位	State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China; College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Li C.,Wu X.,Ji D.,et al. Climate change impacts the epidemic of dysentery: Determining climate risk window, modeling and projection[J],2019,14(10).
APA	Li C.,Wu X.,Ji D.,Liu J.,Yin J.,&Guo Z..(2019).Climate change impacts the epidemic of dysentery: Determining climate risk window, modeling and projection.Environmental Research Letters,14(10).
MLA	Li C.,et al."Climate change impacts the epidemic of dysentery: Determining climate risk window, modeling and projection".Environmental Research Letters 14.10(2019).