气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Quantifying uncertainty in European climate projections using combined performance-independence weighting

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DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab492f
	Quantifying uncertainty in European climate projections using combined performance-independence weighting
	Brunner L.; Lorenz R.; Zumwald M.; Knutti R.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	17489318
卷号	14 期号:12
英文摘要	Uncertainty in model projections of future climate change arises due to internal variability, multiple possible emission scenarios, and different model responses to anthropogenic forcing. To robustly quantify uncertainty in multi-model ensembles, inter-dependencies between models as well as a models ability to reproduce observations should be considered. Here, a model weighting approach, which accounts for both independence and performance, is applied to European temperature and precipitation projections from the CMIP5 archive. Two future periods representing mid- and end-of-century conditions driven by the high-emission scenario RCP8.5 are investigated. To inform the weighting, six diagnostics based on three observational estimates are used to also account for uncertainty in the observational record. Our findings show that weighting the ensemble can reduce the interquartile spread by more than 20% in some regions, increasing the reliability of projected changes. The mean temperature change is most notably impacted by the weighting in the Mediterranean, where it is found to be 0.35 °C higher than the unweighted mean in the end-of-century period. For precipitation the largest differences are found for Northern Europe, with a relative decrease in precipitation of 2.4% and 3.4% for the two future periods compared to the unweighted case. Based on a perfect model test, it is found that weighting the ensemble leads to an increase in the investigated skill score for temperature and precipitation while minimizing the probability of overfitting. © 2019 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	climate models; CMIP5; EUCP; Europe; model weighting; precipitation; temperature
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate change; Precipitation (chemical); Temperature; Uncertainty analysis; Anthropogenic forcing; Climate projection; CMIP5; EUCP; Europe; Internal variability; Multi-model ensemble; Weighting approaches; Climate models; anthropogenic effect; climate modeling; climate prediction; CMIP; European Union; precipitation (climatology); temperature effect; Mediterranean Region; Northern Europe
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/154321
作者单位	ETH Zurich, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Universitatstrasse 16, Zurich, 8092, Switzerland; ETH Zurich, Institute for Environmental Decisions, Universitatstrasse 16, Zurich, 8092, Switzerland
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Brunner L.,Lorenz R.,Zumwald M.,et al. Quantifying uncertainty in European climate projections using combined performance-independence weighting[J],2019,14(12).
APA	Brunner L.,Lorenz R.,Zumwald M.,&Knutti R..(2019).Quantifying uncertainty in European climate projections using combined performance-independence weighting.Environmental Research Letters,14(12).
MLA	Brunner L.,et al."Quantifying uncertainty in European climate projections using combined performance-independence weighting".Environmental Research Letters 14.12(2019).