气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Multi-year prediction of European summer drought conditions for the agricultural sector

CCPortal

DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab5043
	Multi-year prediction of European summer drought conditions for the agricultural sector
	Solaraju-Murali B.; Caron L.-P.; Gonzalez-Reviriego N.; Doblas-Reyes F.J.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	17489318
卷号	14 期号:12
英文摘要	Decadal climate prediction, where climate models are initialized with the contemporaneous state of the Earth system and run for a decade into the future, represents a new source of near-term climate information to better inform decisions and policies across key climate-sensitive sectors. This paper illustrates the potential usefulness of such predictions for building a climate service for agricultural needs. In particular, we assess the forecast quality of multi-model climate predictions in estimating two user-relevant drought indices, Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), at multi-annual timescales during European summer. We obtain high skill for predicting five-year average (forecast years 1-5) SPEI across Southern Europe, while for the same forecast period SPI exhibits high and significant skill over Scandinavia and its surrounding regions. In addition, an assessment of the added value of initialized decadal climate information with respect to standard uninitialized climate projections is presented. The model initialization improves the forecast skill over Central Europe, the Balkan region and Southern Scandinavia. Most of the increased skill found with initialization seems to be due to the climate forecast systems ability to improve the extended summer precipitation and potential evapotranspiration forecast, as well as their ability to adequately represent the observed effects of these climate variables on the drought indices. © 2019 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	decadal forecast; drought; forecast quality assessment
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Agriculture; Climatology; Drought; Earth (planet); Evapotranspiration; Forecasting; Climate information; Model initialization; Multi-annual timescales; Potential evapotranspiration; Quality assessment; Standardized precipitation index; Summer precipitation; Surrounding regions; Climate models; agroindustry; assessment method; climate modeling; drought; index method; potential evapotranspiration; summer; Europe
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/154317
作者单位	Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC), Carrer de Jordi Girona 29-31, Barcelona, E-08034, Spain; Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avancats (ICREA), Pg. Luís Companys 23, Barcelona, E-08010, Spain
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Solaraju-Murali B.,Caron L.-P.,Gonzalez-Reviriego N.,et al. Multi-year prediction of European summer drought conditions for the agricultural sector[J],2019,14(12).
APA	Solaraju-Murali B.,Caron L.-P.,Gonzalez-Reviriego N.,&Doblas-Reyes F.J..(2019).Multi-year prediction of European summer drought conditions for the agricultural sector.Environmental Research Letters,14(12).
MLA	Solaraju-Murali B.,et al."Multi-year prediction of European summer drought conditions for the agricultural sector".Environmental Research Letters 14.12(2019).