气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Compensatory climate effects link trends in global runoff to rising atmospheric CO2 concentration

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DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab5c6f
	Compensatory climate effects link trends in global runoff to rising atmospheric CO2 concentration
	Yang H.; Huntingford C.; Wiltshire A.; Sitch S.; Mercado L.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	17489318
卷号	14 期号:12
英文摘要	River runoff is a key attribute of the land surface, that additionally has a strong influence on society by the provision of freshwater. Yet various environmental factors modify runoff levels, and some trends could be detrimental to humanity. Drivers include elevated CO2 concentration, climate change, aerosols and altered land-use. Additionally, nitrogen deposition and tropospheric ozone changes influence plant functioning, and thus runoff, yet their importance is less understood. All these effects are now included in the JULES-CN model. We first evaluate runoff estimates from this model against 42 large basin scales, and then conduct factorial simulations to investigate these mechanisms individually. We determine how different drivers govern the trends of runoff over three decades for which data is available. Numerical results suggest rising atmospheric CO2 concentration is the most important contributor to the global mean runoff trend, having a significant mean increase of +0.18 ± 0.006 mm yr-2 and due to the overwhelming importance of physiological effects. However, at the local scale, the dominant influence on historical runoff trends is climate in 82% of the global land area. This difference is because climate change impacts, mainly due to precipitation changes, can be positive (38% of global land area) or negative (44% of area), depending on location. For other drivers, land use change leads to increased runoff trends in wet tropical regions and decreased runoff in Southeast China, Central Asia and the eastern USA. Modelling the terrestrial nitrogen cycle in general suppresses runoff decreases induced by the CO2 fertilization effect, highlighting the importance of carbon-nitrogen interactions on ecosystem hydrology. Nitrogen effects do, though, induce decreasing trend components for much of arid Australia and the boreal regions. Ozone influence was mainly smaller than other drivers. © 2019 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	Atmosphericco2; Carbon-nitrogen interaction; Climate change; Hydrological cycle; Runoff
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Carbon dioxide; Land use; Nitrogen; Ozone; Runoff; Atmosphericco2; Climate change impact; Environmental factors; Hydrological cycles; Nitrogen deposition; Physiological effects; Precipitation change; Tropospheric ozone; Climate change; carbon dioxide; climate change; global perspective; hydrological cycle; land use change; ozone; runoff; troposphere; Australia; Central Asia; China; United States
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/154248
作者单位	Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Benson Lane, Wallingford, OX10 8BB, United Kingdom; Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, 100871, China; Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom; College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Yang H.,Huntingford C.,Wiltshire A.,et al. Compensatory climate effects link trends in global runoff to rising atmospheric CO2 concentration[J],2019,14(12).
APA	Yang H.,Huntingford C.,Wiltshire A.,Sitch S.,&Mercado L..(2019).Compensatory climate effects link trends in global runoff to rising atmospheric CO2 concentration.Environmental Research Letters,14(12).
MLA	Yang H.,et al."Compensatory climate effects link trends in global runoff to rising atmospheric CO2 concentration".Environmental Research Letters 14.12(2019).