气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): High predictability of terrestrial carbon fluxes from an initialized decadal prediction system

CCPortal

DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab5c55
	High predictability of terrestrial carbon fluxes from an initialized decadal prediction system
	Lovenduski N.S.; Bonan G.B.; Yeager S.G.; Lindsay K.; Lombardozzi D.L.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	17489318
卷号	14 期号:12
英文摘要	Interannual variations in the flux of carbon dioxide (CO2) between the land surface and the atmosphere are the dominant component of interannual variations in the atmospheric CO2 growth rate. Here, we investigate the potential to predict variations in these terrestrial carbon fluxes 1-10 years in advance using a novel set of retrospective decadal forecasts of an Earth system model. We demonstrate that globally-integrated net ecosystem production (NEP) exhibits high potential predictability for 2 years following forecast initialization. This predictability exceeds that from a persistence or uninitialized forecast conducted with the same Earth system model. The potential predictability in NEP derives mainly from high predictability in ecosystem respiration, which itself is driven by vegetation carbon and soil moisture initialization. Our findings unlock the potential to forecast the terrestrial ecosystem in a changing environment. © 2019 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	Decadal prediction; Net ecosystem production; Terrestrial carbon
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Carbon dioxide; Forecasting; Growth rate; Soil moisture; Changing environment; Decadal predictions; Earth system model; Ecosystem respiration; High potential; Interannual variation; Net ecosystem production; Terrestrial ecosystems; Ecosystems; annual variation; carbon dioxide; carbon flux; climate modeling; growth; land surface; net ecosystem production; prediction; soil moisture; terrestrial ecosystem
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/154243
作者单位	Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, United States; Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Lovenduski N.S.,Bonan G.B.,Yeager S.G.,et al. High predictability of terrestrial carbon fluxes from an initialized decadal prediction system[J],2019,14(12).
APA	Lovenduski N.S.,Bonan G.B.,Yeager S.G.,Lindsay K.,&Lombardozzi D.L..(2019).High predictability of terrestrial carbon fluxes from an initialized decadal prediction system.Environmental Research Letters,14(12).
MLA	Lovenduski N.S.,et al."High predictability of terrestrial carbon fluxes from an initialized decadal prediction system".Environmental Research Letters 14.12(2019).