气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Optimising the use of ensemble information in numerical weather forecasts of wind power generation

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DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab5e54
	Optimising the use of ensemble information in numerical weather forecasts of wind power generation
	Stanger J.; Finney I.; Weisheimer A.; Palmer T.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	17489318
卷号	14 期号:12
英文摘要	Electricity generation output forecasts for wind farms across Europe use numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. These forecasts influence decisions in the energy market, some of which help determine daily energy prices or the usage of thermal power generation plants. The predictive skill of power generation forecasts has an impact on the profitability of energy trading strategies and the ability to decrease carbon emissions. Probabilistic ensemble forecasts contain valuable information about the uncertainties in a forecast. The energy market typically takes basic approaches to using ensemble data to obtain more skilful forecasts. There is, however, evidence that more sophisticated approaches could yield significant further improvements in forecast skill and utility. In this letter, the application of ensemble forecasting methods to the aggregated electricity generation output for wind farms across Germany is investigated using historical ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF). Multiple methods for producing a single forecast from the ensemble are tried and tested against traditional deterministic methods. All the methods exhibit positive skill, relative to a climatological forecast, out to a lead time of at least seven days. A wind energy trading strategy involving ensemble data is implemented and produces significantly more profit than trading strategies based on single forecasts. It is thus found that ensemble spread is a good predictor for wind electricity generation output forecast uncertainty and is extremely valuable at informing wind energy trading strategy. © 2019 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	Energy trading; Ensemble forecasting; Numerical weather forecasting; Renewable energy; Wind energy
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Electric power generation; Electric power system interconnection; Power markets; Profitability; Wind power; Energy trading; Ensemble forecasting; Numerical weather forecasting; Numerical weather forecasts; Numerical weather prediction models; Power generation forecasts; Renewable energies; Wind electricity generation; Weather forecasting; alternative energy; climate prediction; electricity generation; energy market; ensemble forecasting; optimization; power generation; profitability; thermal power; wind power; Germany
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/154235
作者单位	Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics (University of Oxford), Sherringdon RoadOX1 3PU, United Kingdom; Lake Street Consulting Ltd, Oxfordshire, United Kingdom; National Centre of Atmospheric Science (NCAS), United Kingdom; European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF), Reading, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Stanger J.,Finney I.,Weisheimer A.,et al. Optimising the use of ensemble information in numerical weather forecasts of wind power generation[J],2019,14(12).
APA	Stanger J.,Finney I.,Weisheimer A.,&Palmer T..(2019).Optimising the use of ensemble information in numerical weather forecasts of wind power generation.Environmental Research Letters,14(12).
MLA	Stanger J.,et al."Optimising the use of ensemble information in numerical weather forecasts of wind power generation".Environmental Research Letters 14.12(2019).