气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Quantifying the probability distribution function of the transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions

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DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab6d7b
	Quantifying the probability distribution function of the transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions
	Spafford L.; Macdougall A.H.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	17489318
卷号	15 期号:3
英文摘要	The Transient Climate Response to Cumulative CO2 Emissions (TCRE) is the proportionality between global temperature change and cumulative CO2 emissions. The TCRE implies a finite quantity of CO2 emissions, or carbon budget, consistent with a given temperature change limit. The uncertainty of the TCRE is often assumed be normally distributed, but this assumption has yet to be validated. We calculated the TCRE using a zero-dimensional ocean diffusive model and a Monte-Carlo error propagation (n = 10 000 000) randomly drawing from probability density functions of the climate feedback parameter, the land-borne fraction of carbon, radiative forcing from an e-fold increase in CO2 concentration, effective ocean diffusivity, and the ratio of sea to global surface temperature change. The calculated TCRE has a positively skewed distribution, ranging from 1.1 to 2.9 K EgC-1 (5%-95% confidence), with a mean and median value of 1.9 and 1.8 K EgC-1. The calculated distribution of the TCRE is well described by a log-normal distribution. The CO2-only carbon budget compatible with 2 °C warming is 1100 PgC, ranging from 700 to 1800 PgC (5%-95% confidence) estimated using a simplified model of ocean dynamics. Climate sensitivity is the most influential Earth System parameter on the TCRE, followed by the land-borne fraction of carbon, radiative forcing from an e-fold increase in CO2, effective ocean diffusivity, and the ratio of sea to global surface temperature change. While the uncertainty of the TCRE is considerable, the use of a log-normal distribution may improve estimations of the TCRE and associated carbon budgets. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	carbon budgets; carbon-climate feedback; climate sensitivity; land-borne fraction of carbon; transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Atmospheric radiation; Atmospheric temperature; Budget control; Carbon; Carbon dioxide; Climate models; Distribution functions; Land surface temperature; Normal distribution; Oceanography; Probability density function; Surface properties; Transient analysis; Carbon budgets; Climate feedbacks; Climate response; Climate sensitivity; Earth system parameters; Global surface temperature; Global temperature change; Log-normal distribution; Climate change; carbon budget; carbon emission; climate feedback; global warming; Monte Carlo analysis; probability; quantitative analysis; radiative forcing; surface temperature
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/154190
作者单位	Department of Environmental Sciences, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John's, Canada; Climate and Environment, Saint Francis Xavier University, Antigonish, Canada
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Spafford L.,Macdougall A.H.. Quantifying the probability distribution function of the transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions[J],2020,15(3).
APA	Spafford L.,&Macdougall A.H..(2020).Quantifying the probability distribution function of the transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions.Environmental Research Letters,15(3).
MLA	Spafford L.,et al."Quantifying the probability distribution function of the transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions".Environmental Research Letters 15.3(2020).