气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Climate change induced socio-economic tipping points: Review and stakeholder consultation for policy relevant research

CCPortal

DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab6395
	Climate change induced socio-economic tipping points: Review and stakeholder consultation for policy relevant research
	Van Ginkel K.C.H.; Botzen W.J.W.; Haasnoot M.; Bachner G.; Steininger K.W.; Hinkel J.; Watkiss P.; Boere E.; Jeuken A.; De Murieta E.S.; Bosello F.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	17489318
卷号	15 期号:2
英文摘要	Tipping points have become a key concept in research on climate change, indicating points of abrupt transition in biophysical systems as well as transformative changes in adaptation and mitigation strategies. However, the potential existence of tipping points in socio-economic systems has remained underexplored, whereas they might be highly policy relevant. This paper describes characteristics of climate change induced socio-economic tipping points (SETPs) to guide future research on SETPS to inform climate policy. We review existing literature to create a tipping point typology and to derive the following SETP definition: a climate change induced, abrupt change of a socio-economic system, into a new, fundamentally different state. Through stakeholder consultation, we identify 22 candidate SETP examples with policy relevance for Europe. Three of these are described in higher detail to identify their tipping point characteristics (stable states, mechanisms and abrupt change): the collapse of winter sports tourism, farmland abandonment and sea-level rise-induced migration. We find that stakeholder perceptions play an important role in describing SETPs. The role of climate drivers is difficult to isolate from other drivers because of complex interplays with socio-economic factors. In some cases, the rate of change rather than the magnitude of change causes a tipping point. The clearest SETPs are found on small system scales. On a national to continental scale, SETPs are less obvious because they are difficult to separate from their associated economic substitution effects and policy response. Some proposed adaptation measures are so transformative that their implementations can be considered an SETP in terms of 'response to climate change'. Future research can focus on identification and impact analysis of tipping points using stylized models, on the exceedance of stakeholder-defined critical thresholds in the RCP/SSP space and on the macro-economic impacts of new system states. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	climate change; socio-economic; stakeholder consultation; systematic review; tipping points
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Economic and social effects; Sea level; Mitigation strategy; Socio-economic factor; Socio-economic systems; Socio-economics; Stakeholder consultation; Stakeholder perception; Systematic Review; Tipping point; Climate change; adaptive management; climate change; environmental policy; literature review; policy implementation; socioeconomic conditions; stakeholder; Europe
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/154116
作者单位	Deltares, Boussinesqweg 1, Delft, 2629 HV, Netherlands; Institute for Environmental Studies, VU University, Amsterdam, Netherlands; Utrecht University School of Economics, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands; Risk Management and Decision Processes Centre, Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, United States; Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands; University of Graz, Graz, Austria; Global Climate Forum, Berlin, Germany; Humboldt-University, Berlin, Germany; Paul Watkiss Associates, Oxford, United Kingdom; Ecosystem Services and Management Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria; Basque Centre for Climate Change, Leioa, Basque Country, Spain; Grantham Research Institute, London, United Kingdom; Dipartimento di Scienze e Politiche Ambientali, Università Degli Studi di Milano, Milan, Italy; RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment (EIEE), Milan, Italy
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Van Ginkel K.C.H.,Botzen W.J.W.,Haasnoot M.,et al. Climate change induced socio-economic tipping points: Review and stakeholder consultation for policy relevant research[J],2020,15(2).
APA	Van Ginkel K.C.H..,Botzen W.J.W..,Haasnoot M..,Bachner G..,Steininger K.W..,...&Bosello F..(2020).Climate change induced socio-economic tipping points: Review and stakeholder consultation for policy relevant research.Environmental Research Letters,15(2).
MLA	Van Ginkel K.C.H.,et al."Climate change induced socio-economic tipping points: Review and stakeholder consultation for policy relevant research".Environmental Research Letters 15.2(2020).